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Daniel Rubenson's avatar

Thank you for such an informative text! I just want to add the fact that the Lake Nasser holds 1.5 times the full volume of GERD. That means that even if Ethiopia completely closed the Blue Nile for the full time of filling the GERD Egypt could compensate the missing water from Lake Nasser and still have 33% of that lake left when the GERD is full. The Egyptian crop harvest is not at risk even with that rapid filling if olny Egypt would use their own stored water.

As for flooding ond overtopping of the GERD there will never come more water out than tere is let in. So the level of the Blue Nile will only be increasing compared to at pre-GRED situation at times of low rain. That is when the Ethiopians will allow the level of GERD to sink for the purpose of genereating electricity. At times of high rainfall Ethiopia will either fill the dam (if not already full) or simply allow all incoming water to go out - part of it through the turbines and part of it will overflow.

That much for Egypts talk of fear. The real fear is that a stronger Ethiopia will compete for economical power and influence in the region. A war inside Ethiopia could stop that competition, so of course it is in their interest to fuel all internal conflicts in Ethiopia. Devastated Ethiopian infrastructure will slow down Ethiopian economical development.

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Gianni Giacomelli's avatar

Great take. Worth comparing with this level of network system dynamics https://medium.com/@giannigiacomelli69/societys-collective-intelligence-is-emotional-leaders-pay-attention-92baa9df3e91. And - fast forward 20 years, what's climate change going to do to all these fault lines?

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