The Players of the Syrian Chessboard

In the previous article, we saw how many powers are involved in Syria, and how there are winners and losers. Today, we’re going to explore exactly what’s happening on each side: Israel, Russia, Turkey, Europe, Iran, Kurds, and Fundamentalist Sunni Islam.

Israel

Syria has been a threat to Israel for decades. Now, Israel is taking advantage of the chaos in Syria to eliminate that threat in the short term and weaken it in the long term. How?

Short-Term Elimination of Syrian Might

This video shows Israeli attacks on the Syrian port of Latakia:

Source

This is an image of the result of such attacks on Syrian navy ships:

Remains of missile ships of the Syrian Navy in the port of Latakia. Source.

From a Times of Israel correspondent:

Last night, the Israeli Navy carried out a large-scale operation to destroy the former Assad regime's navy fleet in Syria.

Numerous Syrian navy vessels armed with sea-to-sea missiles were destroyed in strikes carried out by Israeli Navy missile boats, at the Minet el-Beida bay and Latakia port on the Syrian coast, according to military sources.

The strikes were carried out to prevent the Syrian navy capabilities and weaponry from falling into the hands of hostile forces, following the collapse of the Assad regime.

And Syria’s air force:

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This is a video of a Syrian air force base:

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Here’s the Israeli Army Radio:

We destroyed the capabilities of the Syrian army in the largest air operation we have carried out in our history.

All the light blue missile icons on this map are Israeli bombings:

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From the Times of Israel correspondent:

The Israeli Air Force has carried out some 300 airstrikes in Syria since the collapse of the regime, destroying advanced weapons and other capabilities that Israel seeks to prevent from reaching hostile forces.

And from this open-source intelligence operator:

The air force destroyed Assad's army: tanks, planes, helicopters, ships, air defense systems, missiles, military factories, intelligence facilities, and everything that the army of the Syrian state has held and built for decades—is being destroyed these days.

If this operation is completed successfully, the new rebel government will have to start from scratch, with M16s and Kalashnikovs, to build their military capabilities as a new state.

All of this will not be enough if Syria rebuilds their forces over time with new sponsors. So Israel is taking steps to secure its border further.

Long-Term Maiming of Syria’s Threat

From the Israeli Army Chief Herzi Halevi

“Since last night, we have been engaged in combat on four fronts. Ground troops are engaged in combat on four fronts: Against terrorism in Judea and Samaria, in Gaza, in Lebanon, and last night we deployed troops into Syrian territory."

Ground troops, not just airplanes. Why?

On Google Maps, the border between Israel and Syria has dotted lines. That’s the Golan Heights, highlighted in pink below:

Here’s a zoom in:

Israel took the Golan Heights in the Six-Day War in 1967 (light yellow on the map above), and in 1974 Syria and Israel agreed to a further disengagement zone, the dark grey area north and east of that.

But why did Israel bother? Was it just to have a buffer with Syria? Yes, but this is not a random buffer:

This map shows the Golan Heights as part of Israel

Notice something about the border? Let’s zoom in:

These are mountains! From there, you can easily see the plains of both Israel and Syria. So they’re great for visibility, but also for artillery! Hence why Israel took them over.

You can see in this 3D map:

This is a view of the Syrian Plain from the Golan Heights:

Perfect visibility, perfect place to shell the valley below. I remember going there 15 years ago and being able to see the entire plain in front of me.

This area is so valuable for Israel’s defense that Prime Minister Netanyahu has just declared that the country will never leave the Golan Heights.

But there’s a problem for Israel with these lines. Notice the white point just north of Israel’s occupied Golan Heights?

That’s Mount Hermon.

Mt Hermon

It’s about 600 meters higher than the highest point in the Israeli Golan Heights.

And it’s just 12 km away.

So as the Syrian army abandoned their positions, the Israelis took over that mount, along with the previous disengagement zone.

The Golan Heights are the blue area surrounded by a blue line. The newly occupied area is also blue but without a blue line. Source.

Now, Damascus is just 40 km away from Israel, and is within shelling distance.

Source

This has an additional benefit. From this thread:

In the past, Israel’s radars suffered from a significant blind spot, unable to see beyond Mt. Hermon and parts of Lebanon from their position on Mt. Meron. Iran's low-flying drones exploited this weakness, infiltrating Israel time and time again. Once placed on Mt. Hermon, Israel’s radars will see far into both Syria and Lebanon, providing early warning of incoming low-flying jets and drones. Israel’s intelligence can also leverage the peak, placing sensors to conduct surveillance and intercept enemy communications. The mountains also provide the perfect cover for Israel’s special forces and spies, who can now enter Syria more freely, conducting missions under the cover of darkness. As the sun rises, Mt. Hermon casts a shadow over Hezbollah’s stronghold in Southern Lebanon, dominating the main road to their northern stronghold in the Beqaa Valley. Several of Hezbollah’s smuggling routes north of the Hermon have been cut off. Be it ISIS, HTS, Iran, or Hezbollah, a hostile force advancing toward Israel will now be exposed -- at the mercy of Israel’s drones, surface-to-surface missiles, and laser-guided bombs. Residents of north Israel can sleep more soundly knowing that Israel controls this peak.

Some media have reported that Israel is moving towards Damascus with tanks, but I highly doubt that. This is the commentary from the former Prime Minister of Israel, Naftali Bennett:

I don’t foresee Israel doing much more than this: One thing is to take advantage of the situation to take over super valuable positions. Another one is to get into a hot war with a country like Syria.

Unless HTS (more on them below) shows signs of aggression. Which it might:

Whoever follows Assad’s footsteps will end up like Assad did. We won’t allow an extremist Islamic terror entity to act against Israel from beyond its borders… we will do anything to remove the threat.—Israel PM Netanyahu

So that’s for Israel. What about the other groups: Kurds, Turkey, Russia, Europe, and Lebanon?