Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Mike W's avatar

The historical dangers to China are really internal, I believe. The "Mandate of Heaven" is earned and kept by the ruler(s) who are strong enough to enforce policies and activities that require a central governing authority that can, for example, raise huge levees of laborers (in the old days) to keep the big rivers within their banks. Some parts of the Yellow River run 50-60 feet of the surrounding land owing to the steady deposition of silt that gives the river its name. The banks of the river are really huge earthen levees built and maintained through the authority of the central government. When the ruler(s) become corrupt or incompetent and catastrophe ensues, hundreds of thousands can and have died. The Chinese have never been good at projecting power beyond their borders. The Europeans made inroads in the 1800s because of Chinese weakness. The Communists are just the latest in a parade of internal conquerors who claim the Mandate over the weakness of the Nationalists who had completely exhausted themselves fighting the Japanese. Now, the world is paying a terrible price for the Chinese hubris and overreach with the Corona virus experiments gone awry. This release of such a monstrous killer on the people of the earth -- including China -- not only makes Chernobyl relatively inconsequential as an example of deadly incompetence, but it is a shadow that will never leave the Chinese people. And soon, the inevitable demographic decline will begin taking a toll on the plans of an expansionist overlord class of some 80 million CCP members in a country of 1.4 billion that is growing old before it got rich. It is only a matter of time till the Mandate passes from these terrible men.

Expand full comment
Chris Robbins's avatar

China will hit a wall soon and suddenly. 1. Their growth was fueled by vast numbers of young people moving off the farm. They are running out if those. 2. They have built so much infrastructure so fast that it will all start to need repair & replacement at the same time. 3. They are building a vast military, which takes wealth away from productive uses. 4. They will need more social spending since there are a higher percentage of elderly people than before, & familes can't support them. 5. They are starting to regulate industry more because people won't tolerate the pollution & bad working conditions. In other words, the reckless growth of recent decades will come to an end. The U.S. has the same problems, but I think they will hit China harder.

Expand full comment
61 more comments...

No posts