In your graph, Brazil doesn't actually look that much more decentralized than the USA. Its regional public spending as a percent of GDP is higher though.
Inflation is anywhere and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. If inflation has been tamed, it's because the Central Bank of Brazil has gotten its act together.
As a resident of Argentina I bounced with joy at your hint that you'd soon publish on this last country, and if you think some proofreading on this coming issue might be useful, don't hesitate to contact me.
Coming back to Brazil, what it has managed to achieve in this context you describe so well is amazing. I remember having read somewhere that the country has the longest strike of year to year economic growth in the world, but that most of the time this growth didn't translate in real improvements for the people because the population itself never ceases to grow. Frustrating but amazing. You should send your article to Musk or to The Boring Company : they may get interested in dealing with the Great Escarpment issue...
Beautiful images of a beautiful country Tomas. Hopefully the coastal cities can eventually connect via the sea and trade. Mountains near the coast are problem but that can be surmounted. Japan, Northern Spain or Chile come to mind.
As a Brazilian, the quality of education improves only on high middle classes. They can afford private schools to their children while most of the population attend public schools, which barely give the basics of a good education.
Hi Tomas, new subscriber here attracted to your newsletter because of the focus on Latin America.
Question: Do you think that the inequality of Brazil - in wealth, which is linked to class and race and vice versa - is partially tied to the deep roots of racism in African slavery? Which, as I read here, was fomented/encouraged by the need for labor for the cerrado?
1) If the King of Portugal had not taken refuge to Brazil following the Napoleon invasion, Brazil would have fractured like Spanish America, which share most of the same characteristics (small coastal plains, separate unconnected river basins...
2) Another region looking like Brazil is the Southern US. The impossibility of internal communications kept them poor and cost them the war of Secession.
Speaking of capital-intensive growth, I've read that the farms in the cerrado are some of the largest farms on earth, and highly automated. High transport cost and high cost of capital encourages innovation and efficiency.
The most thought-provoking part of this article for me was the section on inflation and Iām wondering if thatās somehow related to the fact the Brazil is relatively protectionist, with not insignificant tariffs on imports and many products coming from outside the country. (I donāt have any sources for this, just my own experience shipping items to Brazil and other anecdotal evidence Iāve collected over the years.) The long-term downsides of protectionism are clear to me - reducing your ability to trade will reduce the overall wealth your society can generate - but Iām wondering if the high risk of inflation you mentioned could be a short-term policy incentive for Brazil to be protectionist...in theory, it would dampen the effect of external boom and bust cycles. There are definitely other reasons for protectionism - the small, wealthy Brazilian elite protecting their vested interests is a likely explanation - but Iām curious if the risk of inflation is another motivator.
Does my theory even make sense? Maybe somebody with more economic knowledge knows...haha
> As weāll see in the Amazon article later this week, if making the Cerrado viable agriculturally is expensive, itās even worse for the Amazon rainforest
Well ā¦ you can buy a whole lot of fertilizer, that's the expensive part, esp. since the stuff ends up in the rivers and oceans after the next rainfall. Or you can burn the existing vegetation and move on after a couple years, that's cheap enough, see the last couple of decades' worth of deforestation. Or you can make terra preta ā its only disadvantage is that it takes decades before you get any sort of net benefit.
Maybe we could collaborate by applying a similar structure and using similar sources to those used for analyzing countries through your lens. Let me know!
Iām Brazilian and you certainly did an outstanding view of Brazil. Congrats
Minor correction: the masculine article in Portuguese is "O" not "El". Thus "O cerrado"
In your graph, Brazil doesn't actually look that much more decentralized than the USA. Its regional public spending as a percent of GDP is higher though.
Inflation is anywhere and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. If inflation has been tamed, it's because the Central Bank of Brazil has gotten its act together.
Great article once again. Congratulations!
As a resident of Argentina I bounced with joy at your hint that you'd soon publish on this last country, and if you think some proofreading on this coming issue might be useful, don't hesitate to contact me.
Coming back to Brazil, what it has managed to achieve in this context you describe so well is amazing. I remember having read somewhere that the country has the longest strike of year to year economic growth in the world, but that most of the time this growth didn't translate in real improvements for the people because the population itself never ceases to grow. Frustrating but amazing. You should send your article to Musk or to The Boring Company : they may get interested in dealing with the Great Escarpment issue...
Beautiful images of a beautiful country Tomas. Hopefully the coastal cities can eventually connect via the sea and trade. Mountains near the coast are problem but that can be surmounted. Japan, Northern Spain or Chile come to mind.
As a Brazilian, the quality of education improves only on high middle classes. They can afford private schools to their children while most of the population attend public schools, which barely give the basics of a good education.
Hi Tomas, new subscriber here attracted to your newsletter because of the focus on Latin America.
Question: Do you think that the inequality of Brazil - in wealth, which is linked to class and race and vice versa - is partially tied to the deep roots of racism in African slavery? Which, as I read here, was fomented/encouraged by the need for labor for the cerrado?
1) If the King of Portugal had not taken refuge to Brazil following the Napoleon invasion, Brazil would have fractured like Spanish America, which share most of the same characteristics (small coastal plains, separate unconnected river basins...
2) Another region looking like Brazil is the Southern US. The impossibility of internal communications kept them poor and cost them the war of Secession.
Speaking of capital-intensive growth, I've read that the farms in the cerrado are some of the largest farms on earth, and highly automated. High transport cost and high cost of capital encourages innovation and efficiency.
There is a paradox in your last bullet point
"The different regions of this rugged country, plus the oligarchic nature of the economy, mean that political unity has been hard."
And yet, Brazil holds together as a federation. Meanwhile, Spanish America fractured into 19 separate states (including Puerto Rico) 19!
What allowed the Brazilians to maintain political unity, if their geography was set against them?
Un torrrente de informaciĆ³n inusual para los medios habituales. Me asombra y encanta. Mil gracias por compartirloĀ”Ā”
The most thought-provoking part of this article for me was the section on inflation and Iām wondering if thatās somehow related to the fact the Brazil is relatively protectionist, with not insignificant tariffs on imports and many products coming from outside the country. (I donāt have any sources for this, just my own experience shipping items to Brazil and other anecdotal evidence Iāve collected over the years.) The long-term downsides of protectionism are clear to me - reducing your ability to trade will reduce the overall wealth your society can generate - but Iām wondering if the high risk of inflation you mentioned could be a short-term policy incentive for Brazil to be protectionist...in theory, it would dampen the effect of external boom and bust cycles. There are definitely other reasons for protectionism - the small, wealthy Brazilian elite protecting their vested interests is a likely explanation - but Iām curious if the risk of inflation is another motivator.
Does my theory even make sense? Maybe somebody with more economic knowledge knows...haha
> As weāll see in the Amazon article later this week, if making the Cerrado viable agriculturally is expensive, itās even worse for the Amazon rainforest
Well ā¦ you can buy a whole lot of fertilizer, that's the expensive part, esp. since the stuff ends up in the rivers and oceans after the next rainfall. Or you can burn the existing vegetation and move on after a couple years, that's cheap enough, see the last couple of decades' worth of deforestation. Or you can make terra preta ā its only disadvantage is that it takes decades before you get any sort of net benefit.
Brazil has everything against it and still, it goes well. Argentina has everything on its advantage but still, it lacks behind...
I had never seen such a deep and faithful analysis of my country before.
Thank you for showing us through this approach.
Maybe we could collaborate by applying a similar structure and using similar sources to those used for analyzing countries through your lens. Let me know!