Here's a heuristic that I've developed: When I see a claim about climate change, I immediately ask 3 things:
1. What papers are you referring to? Because there's too many ppl reacting to flimsy concepts rather than science they've read
2. How does that fit with everything else I know? Because if there are glaring inconsistencies, the argument falls apart
3. Who is the person saying it? Because I'm finding 2 types of personas: scientists who have deep but narrow expertise, and broad communicators that don't have any depth. There are some rare experts who have both breadth and depth.
In this case, the article is not very strong:
1. I don't see papers, it looks like the person is mostly sharing opinions?
2. Agricultural yields have consistently improved over time. In the race of technology vs climate, technology is winning handily. It will likely continue.
3. This does not look like a deep and narrow expert, and it certainly doesn't look like a depth&breadth kind of person
I am open, however, to get this appraisal wrong, since I need to optimize my time and can't dive into every single one of them!
Thanks for the link!
Here's a heuristic that I've developed: When I see a claim about climate change, I immediately ask 3 things:
1. What papers are you referring to? Because there's too many ppl reacting to flimsy concepts rather than science they've read
2. How does that fit with everything else I know? Because if there are glaring inconsistencies, the argument falls apart
3. Who is the person saying it? Because I'm finding 2 types of personas: scientists who have deep but narrow expertise, and broad communicators that don't have any depth. There are some rare experts who have both breadth and depth.
In this case, the article is not very strong:
1. I don't see papers, it looks like the person is mostly sharing opinions?
2. Agricultural yields have consistently improved over time. In the race of technology vs climate, technology is winning handily. It will likely continue.
3. This does not look like a deep and narrow expert, and it certainly doesn't look like a depth&breadth kind of person
I am open, however, to get this appraisal wrong, since I need to optimize my time and can't dive into every single one of them!