Trend mapping is a great forecasting technique, if not the foundation of forecasting as one approach to understanding tomorrow, today. Yet if the entirety of our vision for 'what could be' is grounded in 'what has been,' then I'm afraid our future will look very derivative. So yes, there is much understanding to be had in understanding history, *and* we need to embrace and practice generative imagination. Sometimes the ideas we need, the ideas with the most transformational potential, will be ideas without precedent. To address the confluence of crisis we face as a species, my hunch is that we need to untether ourselves from precedent and deductive thinking to allow ourselves to explore radical ideas that no one has thought of.
Super interesting. Thanks Joel! I’ll look into trend mapping.
Don’t get me wrong, I didn’t mean to say that projecting forward the past is the *best* way to make the future. I meant to say it’s the *easiest*.
I do think, however, that very few things are truly disruptive. Most of them are incremental, even what looks revolutionary. It’s not a coincidence that Newton said “I stand on the shoulders of giants”, or that Einstein was a patent analyst (who read all the science and technology there was about light and gravity).
So I believe learning from the past (and the present) allows us to make the best inferences about what will work in the future. It shouldn’t be the only thing though.
Yes, you're totally right – appreciate the differentiation between the *easiest* and the *best* approach. This is my thought as well – projecting forward the past is a very helpful approach to looking ahead.
I also agree that there isn't much that is "disruptive" in the Silicon Valley sense, and that all innovation is 'built on the shoulders of giants.' This is what I love about the concept of 'the adjacent possible.' Though I do think there are exponential innovations that have truly disruptive impact. The ability to observe, measure, and manipulate atomic phenomenon. Flight. Sequencing DNA. The internet. Of course these things would not have been possible if it were not for the innovations and advances (however incremental, going back to BCE thinkers) that preceded them, but these were truly disruptive innovations inasmuch as the 'cambrian explosion' of innovation they made possible was truly exponential. The rate of social, economic, and technological change over the last 400 years being far greater than all the change of the previous 4000 years is testament to this, I think.
Cheers to learning and being a student of history for sure. Glad to have come across your work, looking forward to more!
Tomas, you might find the work of Daniel Burrus to be interesting. He differentiates between cyclical trends and linear/exponential trends for understanding the future.
The main difficulty I find to predict or forecast about something is how to get the precise data sources. Without precise well classified past data all is difficult to predict the future.
Yes, and...
Trend mapping is a great forecasting technique, if not the foundation of forecasting as one approach to understanding tomorrow, today. Yet if the entirety of our vision for 'what could be' is grounded in 'what has been,' then I'm afraid our future will look very derivative. So yes, there is much understanding to be had in understanding history, *and* we need to embrace and practice generative imagination. Sometimes the ideas we need, the ideas with the most transformational potential, will be ideas without precedent. To address the confluence of crisis we face as a species, my hunch is that we need to untether ourselves from precedent and deductive thinking to allow ourselves to explore radical ideas that no one has thought of.
Super interesting. Thanks Joel! I’ll look into trend mapping.
Don’t get me wrong, I didn’t mean to say that projecting forward the past is the *best* way to make the future. I meant to say it’s the *easiest*.
I do think, however, that very few things are truly disruptive. Most of them are incremental, even what looks revolutionary. It’s not a coincidence that Newton said “I stand on the shoulders of giants”, or that Einstein was a patent analyst (who read all the science and technology there was about light and gravity).
So I believe learning from the past (and the present) allows us to make the best inferences about what will work in the future. It shouldn’t be the only thing though.
Yes, you're totally right – appreciate the differentiation between the *easiest* and the *best* approach. This is my thought as well – projecting forward the past is a very helpful approach to looking ahead.
I also agree that there isn't much that is "disruptive" in the Silicon Valley sense, and that all innovation is 'built on the shoulders of giants.' This is what I love about the concept of 'the adjacent possible.' Though I do think there are exponential innovations that have truly disruptive impact. The ability to observe, measure, and manipulate atomic phenomenon. Flight. Sequencing DNA. The internet. Of course these things would not have been possible if it were not for the innovations and advances (however incremental, going back to BCE thinkers) that preceded them, but these were truly disruptive innovations inasmuch as the 'cambrian explosion' of innovation they made possible was truly exponential. The rate of social, economic, and technological change over the last 400 years being far greater than all the change of the previous 4000 years is testament to this, I think.
Cheers to learning and being a student of history for sure. Glad to have come across your work, looking forward to more!
Very true.
As for the types of innovations you mention, I doubt anybody can foresee them.
I think the equivalent we’re living these days is blockchain, and even 13 years later I still don’t think we grasp its full extent.
More importantly, by definition I don’t think something like that can be preconceived
Tomas, you might find the work of Daniel Burrus to be interesting. He differentiates between cyclical trends and linear/exponential trends for understanding the future.
This was amazing! Forecasting trends has helped a lot of focus in life and business.
The main difficulty I find to predict or forecast about something is how to get the precise data sources. Without precise well classified past data all is difficult to predict the future.