Estudie usted el peak oil, la escasez energética que ya comienza a afectarnos, y transformará todas sus creencias, algunas las tirará al retrete y otras, que apunta, se amplificarán.
A mi, desde luego, me importarían los pensamientos y creencias que usted desarrolle al respecto.
¿Qué pasará, que está comenzando a pasar, con la civilización industrial, con la civilización occidental/Imperio (EEUU, Europa, países OTAN? ¿Qué pasará con nosotros? No hay energía que pueda sustituir el rendimiento/trabajo de los fósiles y del petróleo en particular.
¿Y si ni siquiera hemos comenzado a extraer todo el aceite? Algunos países, por pequeños que sean, ni siquiera han comenzado a extraer. ¡Considere el enorme delta del río que forma la mayor parte del sur de Birmania! Enormes reservas, de las que no se oye hablar. Los hidrocarburos de la vertiente ártica también son abundantes. Para otros, como los USA, fracking aún no ha comenzado a romper lo que está disponible. ¿Qué pasa si el riesgo sigue siendo el petróleo barato? Versus, ¿el lejano pico del petróleo en el futuro? Perhaps the risk is continued cheap oil. More atmospheric warming. More petroleum pollution, more dependence on cheap soil nutrients (petro fertilizers), and plastics into the food systems across all manner of Flora and Fauna, from whales dying off in mass, to protozoa. I worry less about peak oil, and worry much more about continued cheap oil.
Please consider sharing a few of the premium articles for free so that subscribers can get a sense of what they'll be missing if they don't become paid subscribers!
The way I'm thinking about it is that most themes will be covered by a regular and premium article. The premium article goes deeper, covers more content, might be more exploratory. But you should get a gist of the content from the free.
If this doesn't give you enough sense of the premium one, do let me know and I'll think of something else.
"I believe that some of us alive today will live forever. Maybe you, reading this."
I've learned much from your well thought out articles on COVID-19, but the sentiment in the "live forever" claim stands in contrast to your demonstrated knowledge on COVID-19.
As cancer researcher Robert Weinberg has said often, "If you live long enough, you will get cancer."
Mutations in cellular DNA are unavoidable (cosmic rays, naturally occurring radiation sources, DNA replication errors, . . . ) and some of them yield a cell that begins uninhibited growth.
I'll read with interest your musings on this issue, and how you perceive that human management of DNA mutational processes will evolve, but at present I remain highly skeptical on the issue of living "forever".
Tomas, I really found your Coronavirus articles were exactly appropriate and insightful - I wonder if you are also a fan of Gapminder & the late Hans Rosling - I read his book Factfulness (written 2018) https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/34890015-factfulness which identifies 5 global risks we should be worried about (global pandemic, financial collapse, WW3, climate change & extreme poverty). I look forward to reading your newsletters!
This is wonderful news!! Your writing regarding the pandemic was outstanding! Many of my medical academic friends put you in the class of Fauci, Gottlieb and Osterberg for quality, accurate and truthful information. I'm so looking forward to learning from your broader perspective.
That is all very well and interesting. I would consider to subscribe if only how to unsubscribe would be made clear. You pay 100$ for one year: what about renewal? Or can you unsubscribe at any time and be free of obligations to pay?
You can unsubscribe at any time and your access ends at the end of the term. So if you sign up monthly and pay the first month, if you cancel after a couple of weeks, you won't make any more payments and you will have access to the content until the end of the month.
What an enticing list of topics in the draft list! fwiw if I had to pick just one, I give my +1 vote to reversing ageing. Perhaps it's just availability bias tho, just today I wandered into the site of the Foresight Institute and their collection of talks on Biotech:Health Extension
It's at the same time a fascinating topic with lots of promise, but also one where there's a lot of fanfare and most of the things we think will work end up not working. So diving into the detail of what is true or not, and what's likely to work in the future, sounds necessary to me
Or a Freudian slip ;) already subscribed and open to find out more. I loved Tomas' articles on COVID-19 during the pandemic. They were a beacon of reason in a see of hysteria and misinformation. So I hope to see this line continued on other pressing issues of our time.
The oversight was because the nature of the problem is different from the rest. The science is settled and what we need to do about it is too. No amount of storytelling will change it either. It's much more a coordination issue than any of the other topics. That makes my contribution to the conversation harder.
What we need to do may be partly clear, but *how* we will do it is not and worth exploring. Your point about all of us being a neuron of a brain is apt - implementation at scale will be messy and organic. Some ideas based on my MIT work at the Center for Collective Intelligence are here www.supermind.design if of use.
Gianni, super super interesting. 200 something pages is a lot to read in one sitting, but I started reading it and it's very much an area that I'm fascinated about. My bias approaching this problem is how to productize decision-making, so I very much look forward to reading more. Thanks for sharing!
You know what, I hadn't realized. I am still going back and forth with the designer (she's amazing!) but didn't want to wait. This is what you get. Thanks for noticing! I'll correct in the next few days
Just discovered Uncharted Territories and looking forward to reading it! (The introductory post is one of the best out there, nice, smooth and informative)
You write "I believe remote work will do to white collar workers what it has done to blue collar workers over the last 50 years." I'm not sure this statement makes sense. Or maybe it's just an unintentional grammar thing. What has remote work done to blue collar workers over the last 50 years?
Thanks! Updated. I believe remote work will do to white collar workers what offshoring and automation have done to blue collar workers over the last 50 years.
Delighted that you are doing this. I much enjoyed the clarity of the Covid articles. My interest, for about thirty years has been to identify the necessary conditions for the survival of humanity. This is what I came up with, broadcast on Radio National here in Australia:
Hi Dr Steb, thanks for sharing! I just listened. Very interesting (and soothing voice!). Have you read Non-Zero from Robert Wright? He has very interesting thoughts on the value created by cooperative and competitive systems
Just listened to his TED talk of April 2008. Agree with his fundamental assertion that Non-Zero can lead to a higher moral stance. Links to Axelrod on the Evolution of Cooperation and Robert Frank, "Passions within Reason, the Strategic Role of the Emotions".
I think that we (humanity) are nonetheless in a 'potential well' with mostly high walls of greed, resentment, separation, fear, aggression etc. and I am interested in how we might create a state change to a 'potential well' mostly characterised by connection, acceptance, love, cooperation, joy . . . .
The way I look at it, societies have had much worse problems in the past. Now we have different challenges—global ones—and the social coordination tools we have don't work for this new type of pbm. So we just need new coordination tools. Our current tools of nation-states, democracies, redistributive capitalism, and current social media have lots of positives, but are not quite there to solve these global pbms.
Your list mentions the the competing world-views democracy and authoritarianism, but doesn't touch on broader questions of equality. I want to understand why archetypally "male" thinking is so dominant and how it can be subdued. There is so much wisdom in non-European world views that is demonstrably true from the perspective of lived experience and empirical observation. Wisdom that is essential to shifting our species off the path of disrupting the homeostasis that has allowed us to flourish. Yet it continues to be obliterated by the mythology of human dominance of the natural world. Seems to me understanding this is critical to your question of humanity surviving the 21st century.
You're going to love my series on History Moves to the Cloud. I have 4 of the 10 articles written. Just trying to figure out the right time to start publishing it!
Estudie usted el peak oil, la escasez energética que ya comienza a afectarnos, y transformará todas sus creencias, algunas las tirará al retrete y otras, que apunta, se amplificarán.
A mi, desde luego, me importarían los pensamientos y creencias que usted desarrolle al respecto.
Saludos.
Sí, tengo mucha curiosidad sobre las consecuencias geopolíticas. Qué pasará con países como Arabia Saudí cuando pierdan la mayoría de sus ingresos?
¿Qué pasará, que está comenzando a pasar, con la civilización industrial, con la civilización occidental/Imperio (EEUU, Europa, países OTAN? ¿Qué pasará con nosotros? No hay energía que pueda sustituir el rendimiento/trabajo de los fósiles y del petróleo en particular.
¿Y si ni siquiera hemos comenzado a extraer todo el aceite? Algunos países, por pequeños que sean, ni siquiera han comenzado a extraer. ¡Considere el enorme delta del río que forma la mayor parte del sur de Birmania! Enormes reservas, de las que no se oye hablar. Los hidrocarburos de la vertiente ártica también son abundantes. Para otros, como los USA, fracking aún no ha comenzado a romper lo que está disponible. ¿Qué pasa si el riesgo sigue siendo el petróleo barato? Versus, ¿el lejano pico del petróleo en el futuro? Perhaps the risk is continued cheap oil. More atmospheric warming. More petroleum pollution, more dependence on cheap soil nutrients (petro fertilizers), and plastics into the food systems across all manner of Flora and Fauna, from whales dying off in mass, to protozoa. I worry less about peak oil, and worry much more about continued cheap oil.
Please consider sharing a few of the premium articles for free so that subscribers can get a sense of what they'll be missing if they don't become paid subscribers!
Absolutely.
The way I'm thinking about it is that most themes will be covered by a regular and premium article. The premium article goes deeper, covers more content, might be more exploratory. But you should get a gist of the content from the free.
If this doesn't give you enough sense of the premium one, do let me know and I'll think of something else.
"I believe that some of us alive today will live forever. Maybe you, reading this."
I've learned much from your well thought out articles on COVID-19, but the sentiment in the "live forever" claim stands in contrast to your demonstrated knowledge on COVID-19.
As cancer researcher Robert Weinberg has said often, "If you live long enough, you will get cancer."
Mutations in cellular DNA are unavoidable (cosmic rays, naturally occurring radiation sources, DNA replication errors, . . . ) and some of them yield a cell that begins uninhibited growth.
I'll read with interest your musings on this issue, and how you perceive that human management of DNA mutational processes will evolve, but at present I remain highly skeptical on the issue of living "forever".
Tomas, I really found your Coronavirus articles were exactly appropriate and insightful - I wonder if you are also a fan of Gapminder & the late Hans Rosling - I read his book Factfulness (written 2018) https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/34890015-factfulness which identifies 5 global risks we should be worried about (global pandemic, financial collapse, WW3, climate change & extreme poverty). I look forward to reading your newsletters!
Thanks! It's in my Kindle library! Taking electronic dust I'd say. Too many unread books vying for attention...
The Founding Member option allows me to input an amount to pay (even <$100). Is this how it's meant to work?
Thanks for flagging. It wasn't!
This is wonderful news!! Your writing regarding the pandemic was outstanding! Many of my medical academic friends put you in the class of Fauci, Gottlieb and Osterberg for quality, accurate and truthful information. I'm so looking forward to learning from your broader perspective.
That is so kind. Thanks Vic! I hope to live up to the expectations!
That is all very well and interesting. I would consider to subscribe if only how to unsubscribe would be made clear. You pay 100$ for one year: what about renewal? Or can you unsubscribe at any time and be free of obligations to pay?
Hi Chimai, I just asked Substack how it works.
You can unsubscribe at any time and your access ends at the end of the term. So if you sign up monthly and pay the first month, if you cancel after a couple of weeks, you won't make any more payments and you will have access to the content until the end of the month.
Does this answer your question?
What an enticing list of topics in the draft list! fwiw if I had to pick just one, I give my +1 vote to reversing ageing. Perhaps it's just availability bias tho, just today I wandered into the site of the Foresight Institute and their collection of talks on Biotech:Health Extension
It's at the same time a fascinating topic with lots of promise, but also one where there's a lot of fanfare and most of the things we think will work end up not working. So diving into the detail of what is true or not, and what's likely to work in the future, sounds necessary to me
Did I just read correctly that of all the big problems and unknowns of the future, you didn't even mention climate change?
Just an over sight I am sure. Subscribe and find out! rdmill
Or a Freudian slip ;) already subscribed and open to find out more. I loved Tomas' articles on COVID-19 during the pandemic. They were a beacon of reason in a see of hysteria and misinformation. So I hope to see this line continued on other pressing issues of our time.
Thanks Sebastian and Robert!
Yes, Global Warming too.
The oversight was because the nature of the problem is different from the rest. The science is settled and what we need to do about it is too. No amount of storytelling will change it either. It's much more a coordination issue than any of the other topics. That makes my contribution to the conversation harder.
Worth naming though.Thanks for pointing it out!
What we need to do may be partly clear, but *how* we will do it is not and worth exploring. Your point about all of us being a neuron of a brain is apt - implementation at scale will be messy and organic. Some ideas based on my MIT work at the Center for Collective Intelligence are here www.supermind.design if of use.
Gianni, super super interesting. 200 something pages is a lot to read in one sitting, but I started reading it and it's very much an area that I'm fascinated about. My bias approaching this problem is how to productize decision-making, so I very much look forward to reading more. Thanks for sharing!
On your website logo it is written one way...and in the headers the other way...hence the question.
You know what, I hadn't realized. I am still going back and forth with the designer (she's amazing!) but didn't want to wait. This is what you get. Thanks for noticing! I'll correct in the next few days
Just discovered Uncharted Territories and looking forward to reading it! (The introductory post is one of the best out there, nice, smooth and informative)
You write "I believe remote work will do to white collar workers what it has done to blue collar workers over the last 50 years." I'm not sure this statement makes sense. Or maybe it's just an unintentional grammar thing. What has remote work done to blue collar workers over the last 50 years?
Thanks! Updated. I believe remote work will do to white collar workers what offshoring and automation have done to blue collar workers over the last 50 years.
Got it - thanks for the clarification.
Delighted that you are doing this. I much enjoyed the clarity of the Covid articles. My interest, for about thirty years has been to identify the necessary conditions for the survival of humanity. This is what I came up with, broadcast on Radio National here in Australia:
https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/ockhamsrazor/a-century-of-healing/7432738
Hi Dr Steb, thanks for sharing! I just listened. Very interesting (and soothing voice!). Have you read Non-Zero from Robert Wright? He has very interesting thoughts on the value created by cooperative and competitive systems
Honoured that you would listen and respond so soon. I'll look up Non-Zero now.
Just listened to his TED talk of April 2008. Agree with his fundamental assertion that Non-Zero can lead to a higher moral stance. Links to Axelrod on the Evolution of Cooperation and Robert Frank, "Passions within Reason, the Strategic Role of the Emotions".
I think that we (humanity) are nonetheless in a 'potential well' with mostly high walls of greed, resentment, separation, fear, aggression etc. and I am interested in how we might create a state change to a 'potential well' mostly characterised by connection, acceptance, love, cooperation, joy . . . .
I hear you.
The way I look at it, societies have had much worse problems in the past. Now we have different challenges—global ones—and the social coordination tools we have don't work for this new type of pbm. So we just need new coordination tools. Our current tools of nation-states, democracies, redistributive capitalism, and current social media have lots of positives, but are not quite there to solve these global pbms.
Your list mentions the the competing world-views democracy and authoritarianism, but doesn't touch on broader questions of equality. I want to understand why archetypally "male" thinking is so dominant and how it can be subdued. There is so much wisdom in non-European world views that is demonstrably true from the perspective of lived experience and empirical observation. Wisdom that is essential to shifting our species off the path of disrupting the homeostasis that has allowed us to flourish. Yet it continues to be obliterated by the mythology of human dominance of the natural world. Seems to me understanding this is critical to your question of humanity surviving the 21st century.
You're going to love my series on History Moves to the Cloud. I have 4 of the 10 articles written. Just trying to figure out the right time to start publishing it!
Which is correct, "uncharted" or "unchartered"?
Ha! Very clever, very clever. I'll use it when I talk about what will replace nation-states