GeoHistory Update | Q2 2024
This is the quarterly update on Geography, History, and Geopolitics. In today’s article:
How the Burmese resistance is progressing and why. Will it win?
How another transportation technology is changing urbanism yet again
Suburban density vs happiness
Why colonialism is good for you
More evidence on why Northern Europe is richer than Southern Europe (no, it’s not protestantism)
Industrial Revolution didn’t happen when you think it did
And more!
(Half paywalled)
Later this week, the premium quarterly sex update will discuss:
Do sexy parents have sexy children? Not always
Why men are more into good looks than women?
What parts of the other sex’s body do you like to touch and see the most? Get touched and seen?
Do male brains lie to themselves to better lie to women?
Why human females go through menopause more so than other animals (it’s not clear it’s for the grandchildren)
And more!
Burma’s Resistance Might Win This Time
You might know that Burma is going through a civil war. Unlike in the past, however, something unique is happening today:
The resistance might be winning! But it’s impossible to interpret that map without this one:
The main Bamar people (here, Burman) are in the center (darker purple), and the rest of ethnicities are around the periphery. Why?
Because of geography.
The Burman are basically those who occupy the central valley of the Irrawaddy River Basin. The rest is populated by other groups. River valleys are relatively easy to conquer and control. Mountains are much harder. They easily "balkanize"
The following maps show the topography of Burma along with religions and ethnicities.
Burma became independent in 1948. Since then, peripheral ethnicities have wanted their independence. The Burman military dictatorship has fought them. In 2011, the dictatorship relinquished a bit of power, and a decade of some democracy ensued. However, it ended in 2021 when the Military Junta regained control through a coup. And it’s still very powerful:
It controls the fertile heartland with most of the population.
It has good relationships with neighbors that help, like China.
It’s richer than the resistance.
Soldiers are "prisoners": Their families live on bases and suffer when they desert.
But that might not be enough. Look! You can see that the majority of land now controlled by the resistance is still in the mountains.
BUT! What's unique now is that the resistance also controls some of the Irrawaddy Valley plain, especially in the north!
What might be causing this change?
Resistance groups are more united than ever. They coordinate.
Low morale in the army, which has resorted to conscription, leaving many to either run away or join the resistance.
China is also supporting some resistance groups.
Thailand's newly-elected democratic government is leaning away from supporting the Junta.
New tech, like Starlink and 3D-printed guns and drones, might support the rebels more than the Junta.
Lessons from Ukraine's resistance.
A decade of democracy & access to the Internet has shrunk support for the Junta among the Bamar, many of whom have joined the resistance.
Maybe all these elements mean that this time, the resistance might prevail…
If you want to know more about Burma, here is the deep dive on the country.
Another Marchetti Constant at Play
Peter Fabor has noticed that, anecdotally, many Amsterdammers have moved from the red area to the purple area in Amsterdam. He attributes it to electric bikes:
They got larger properties for the same price. But the commuting time/effort with e-bikes stayed the same.
Suburban Density Freedom vs Happiness
John Arnold (hi!) posted this picture of population density in the Dallas–Fort Worth area.
This is not typical. Here are the population densities of London and Paris:
Usually, the more centric you are, the more access you have to everything, the more valuable land is, and the more people want to live there, increasing density.
The difference, of course, is that Dallas grew when cars were already available, so planners criss-crossed the whole area with roads.
Access from many points to many other points was easy, and it never really developed a strong city center.
John believes this is a fantastic development of human freedom and independence. I agree that freedom is good, but does it come at a cost?
Having tasted this lifestyle, I fear cars, roads, and big houses are not a recipe for happiness, and that’s why Americans say they love European cities, and why that feeling is never reciprocated. What if freedom leads to systems that are not conducive to human happiness?
Also, how much freedom is there, really? I don’t know about Dallas, but many other cities have strong municipal zoning restrictions, which they claim are very flexible. A quick Google search suggests Dallas has many. Isn’t the US actively pushing for a suburban lifestyle that, I believe, makes Americans lonely and unhappy?
I explored some of these questions in this article and this article.
Which One Is Richer, the US or Europe?
Since we’re comparing the US and Europe… This is an interesting article from Marko Jukic comparing the wealth—not just the money—of the US and Europe. He argues that:
The EU is not much poorer than the US if you look at the right numbers.
It might even be richer when you account for the commons: Things like crime or the quality of urbanism.
That said, Europe is currently becoming poorer, among other reasons because of the high price of energy right now due to war.
So it might get poorer over time unless that is solved.
There should be no rivalry. We are on the same team!
Back to Texas
In Why Is Texas Mainly a Triangle?, I described the reasons for the location of Texas’s main population area. This is a much funnier and hotter take on Texas’s different regions (via Historic Vids).
Another Mercator Crime
In Maps Distort How We See the World, we looked at a million ways maps make us think equatorial countries are smaller than they are. This new illustration also gives us a sense of the craziness of these representation:
Colonialism Is Good for You
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