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Weston Parker's avatar

What a master class you could teach in geopolitical history! Great job, Tomas.

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Tomas Pueyo's avatar

Thank you!

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Steve Mudge's avatar

Fascinating, excellent info!

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Jon's avatar

In some respects this is a replay of the problems of the late Roman Empire. Trade (to the tune of 1 billion sesterces) flowed across the Red Sea and Indian Ocean from Egypt to Yemen, East Africa, India, and through Indian middlemen to Southeast Asia, Indonesia, and China during the first and second centuries CE. The Empire taxed the trade at 25%, which raised almost as much revenue as Egypt produced domestically (between the tariff and domestic output, Egypt was half of the imperial budget!). The problem was that the Romans didn't make much that India or China wanted, so a lot of bullion left the empire each year - about 100 million sesterces of it. As long as the mines in Iberia could keep up with demand, this wasn't felt in the empire; but as the mines failed, the empire was drained of bullion. Monetary devaluation and political instability followed. No subsidies for client tribes means trouble on the frontiers. Debased currency leads to unrest among the elites. Add a plague or two and the time of troubles begins.

But the time of troubles wasn't only a Roman thing. Look to the east in Persia, India, and China, and one sees similar turmoil. When your best customer goes bankrupt, your trade goes with it. No more influx of silver and gold from the west produces troubles further east.

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Tomas Pueyo's avatar

I didn't know some of these things. Fascinating, thanks!

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Jon's avatar
Oct 8Edited

I commend unto you Raoul McLaughlin's book The Roman Empire and the Indian Ocean. The economic information is there. The broad overgeneralization about consequences is mine.

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Untrickled by Michelle Teheux's avatar

You could add a whole section about how this quest for silver contributed to the spread of Catholicism in central and South America. That shaped the world in ways we barely recognize.

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Tomas Pueyo's avatar

Ah very good point. What do you know about this?

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ep0rt@'s avatar

Excelent article!! Can't wait for the following parts to the series 👌👏

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Amy Letter's avatar

Fascinating article. All the AI do-ups of the old diagrams felt like a big ol' distraction to me, and the original diagram was perfectly comprehensible, but I truly enjoy reading your insights.

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Tomas Pueyo's avatar

Thank you for your feedback! I wonder if this sentiment is shared by others.

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Gnòtul's avatar

I vividly remember a documentary where Romans were already employing (slave-powered) wheels in their Iberian silver mines, however I don’t recall whether this was to pump water or lift ore and materials.

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Tomas Pueyo's avatar

Yes! Central Europeans didn't invent many of these technologies. They perfected most of them though in a way that made water pumping possible, which wasn't before.

Then of course liquation

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Francois Faures's avatar

Very interesting, as always. I'm interested in your take on crypto, which you mention inevitably successful in the opening. In particular, in how crypto could achieve value without a reference to fiat currencies? And (limited to bitcoin) how to avoid the equivalent of the bullion famine when the systems rules prohibit generation above a fixed threshold?

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Tomas Pueyo's avatar

This goes at the heart of the upcoming article(s)!

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Greg W's avatar

Hello Tomas,

Schemnitz, nowadays Banská Stiavnica in Slovakia, formerly in Upper Hungary is located where the map says “Hungary”. Simply put, the miners spoke German, the nobility Hungarian, and the general population Slovak, hence multiple names for the same place. It is interesting that the “seven Hungarian mining towns” were at times close to the border with the Ottoman Empire but, given their immense value, well defended and never conquered (hilly terrain also helped).

The construction of damns for water power, the huge output of waste from the shafts and massive deforestation (all that wood needed as building material and fuel), profoundly transformed the landscape.

The resulting desolation was well described even by contemporary sources. The educated eye can still see the marks left behind when looking at the seemingly pristine forests and hills of the Carpatians. What is left after these once prosperous mining towns fell into oblivion are real hidden gems of baroque architecture, well renovated thanks to EU funds, and German place names related to the mining industry, such as “Halde” (soil heap) or Schacht (mining shaft).

Will the oil wells of Iraq and Saudi Arabia fare the same fate 500 years from now ?

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Tomas Pueyo's avatar

What a fascinating take. I want to see pictures!

And very very good point on Saudi Arabia. I have a draft on that topic. Maybe I should dust it off...

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AKCH Haine's avatar

Silver is the next gold, I'm told. Excellent article as per usual.

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Tomas Pueyo's avatar

You mean right now?

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AKCH Haine's avatar

Yes, it is recommended to invest in silver, not in gold @ this moment.

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Martin Franek's avatar

Tomas, your missing link to mine in Hungry is Banska Stiavnica, town in recent Slovakia. http://www.prvybanickyspolok.sk/content/historia/historia-banictva/banictvo-v-banskej-stiavnici

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Tomas Pueyo's avatar

Updated thanks!

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Casilliac's avatar

Great article. I think the use of AI to make old woodcutting illustrations clearer is so cool.

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Lars Olof Berg's avatar

I love these articles! I wish I had been taught like this already in school.

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Harry Harrison's avatar

Hey Tomas!

Loved this and all your other free content so just upgraded to a paid sub :)

Just wondering if there's a way where you could let readers know which links go to Wikipedia and which go to other UT articles in your content? Perhaps put an asterix or something else next to those that go to UT articles?

I don't really want to read all the content from WP but very much want to read the related UT content you link to from your own articles. It's just slightly annoying having to click on the link itself & open it in another tab to find out whether it goes to Wikipedia or UT.

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Pete Milne's avatar

I always learn a lot from your articles and I greatly appreciate that. This time I really appreciate you calling out what’s AI and what’s not. It’s refreshing to see that you guided the reader into knowing what’s generated content and what has a historical source.

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Junwu Xu's avatar

This post really makes me think about how technology changes everything, from silver to crypto. It reminds me of how tools like nanobana (https://www.nanobana.net) can create new images and ideas, shaping our world in unexpected ways.

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