We’re at war. Putin decided that your freedom doesn’t matter. That if he so wishes, he can take your home, your freedom, your life. We can't fight him directly, but if we act together, we can hurt him in the only asset he has: his energy.
Hi Tomas, good message here! I would like to refine your points a little because conserving energy in buildings is my current profession.
First, I am more conservative than you about legionella. I advise keeping the hot water circulating at 60 C and cooling by dilution at the point of use. 60 C is sterilizing, not just retarding the bacteria that cause legionella.
Second, for office buildings and the like, evaluate when they are needed and turn off lighting and HVAC unless requested. Modern buildings can be controlled using occupancy sensors rather than timers and schedulers.
For latitudes less than, say, 35 degrees, air conditioning and dehumidification use tremendous amounts of electricity, much of this derived from oil and gas. Saving power in the summer reduces natural gas demand, so it can be diverted to Northern Europe in the winter.
A little-considered issue in bigger buildings is the amount of air exhausted. That air has to be replaced by fresh air, which has to be cooled and dehumidified or heated. Most air is exhausted from restrooms, reasonably enough. But the fans are often “always on” and on at full speed. This can be modified to an as-needed basis if the engineering is done well. The amount of fresh air has to track with the exhaust.
Your thoughts on diversification of energy sources is spot on. Oddly enough, the earthquakes generated by oil production come from disposal of the rather nasty water that comes up with the gas and petroleum. Pumping that water down a 5 km deep well leads to a 5 km tall water column. The pressure from that water column causes the quakes. Cleaning up the water or very careful injection can avoid the quakes.
Also, replacing incandescent and fluorescent light bulbs with LEDs is a quick win. They pay for themselves many times over with energy savings and reducing the number of bulb changes. Many can work well for 15 years.
Tomas, I agree with your theme of reducing the West's dependence on the Russian energy, which is reflected in my "like" vote.
However, your statement that the support for the war is waning in Russia is inaccurate. Today, (7 September 2022), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) has issued a report "My Country, Right or Wrong: Russian Public Opinion on Ukraine," https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/07/my-country-right-or-wrong-russian-public-opinion-on-ukraine-pub-87803 , which details Russian opinions. Figure 1 of the report shows only mild reduction in support. In March, 53% supported the war definitely and 28% mostly, for the total of 81%. In June, the numbers were 47% + 28% = 75%.
The Russians blame not Putin but the West for their economic decline. The Russians are habituated to the sanctions since 2014. The economic loss is balanced with the national pride about the Russian strength and significance, and the Russians rally round the flag.
I used to think that opinion polls are unreliable because people would not want to risk their freedom by giving answers that contradict the government views. But the authors of the CEIP report assert that the Levada Center poll was conducted according to the international standards.
Some argue that big corporations are responsible for the bulk of emissions and energy consumption, using that defeatist position to rationalize their lack of personal accountability. There's truth to that claim, of course, but they fail to understand the cumulative impact personal choices have on the zeitgeist. When regulation is absent, personal choices fill the gap. Companies that have gone greener and have invested in DEI haven't done so (in many cases) because they've been compelled by regulation. They've done it to attract top-flight talent who value such things. Leadership is also not immune to those cultural influences, making them more likely set greener policies. It's not a silver bullet, but personal choices matter. Thank you for enumerating many of the ways in which we can make an impact. I know my old house could use an insulation upgrade.
One thing you did not mention is recovery and reuse of waste heat . Many industries emit a lot of waste heat in exhaust air and in the process water they sewer. This is low grade energy but it can be used to heat or preheat domestic or industrial water and to heat building air. The business I worked in considered heating air or water with primary energy an energy sin at least 40 years ago but we still generated a lot of waste energy in our air and water effluents that could heat all of the building air and domestic hot water in our little city.
It was one of my obsessions when I studied electricity generation. Seeing new designs use the principle was great. I’m grad school my team and I used this insight to design a device that increased the efficiency of wood burning for cooking in 3rd world countries using the same idea (although we realized the exhaust was overkill there).
Natural gas is methane, CH4, not H2 or hydrogen. Fracking results in fugitive emissions of methane, which is about 25 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO2. We know that climate change mitigation requires new reserves of oil, gas and coal to remain in the ground. Climate change will result in wars over declining quality and quantity of food and water. Be careful about what you ask for.
Wow, big mistake. I relied on my recollections from my student times, but they turned out to be wrong. I just updated the article accordingly. Thanks for pointing it out!
If I want to install solar panels in my house, here in Madrid, I have to pay 21% of taxes VAT. Why is that, how a country like Spain don't yet lower taxes on panels.
Thank you for the additional data, Victoria. Highly relevant. I make an effort to limit the wishful thinking, but the bias is hard to fully check. I’m glad you make part of those checks and balances!
This is a naive American version wrt how force and power work... as well as negotiating peace by saving energy! you're just "...fighting Russians until the last Ukrainian". We, Ukrainians, created this joke in 2015, cause it was bloody obvious back then how US was going to play this.
Write a piece on who starts proxy wars, why, and how it is going. If you can't, then don't venture into these topics, because if you're not helping peace, you ARE shedding peoples' blood by spreading one-sided 100-level propaganda.
Tomas Pueyo, you should focus on the causes of the war....and in particular the history of American failed interference in a handful of countries since Eisenhower...
ranging obviously from Vietnam, S Korea, Iraq, Afghanistan..Libya, the Balkans.
Specifically, you should take time, you are a speed reader I imagine,
to read Mary Sarotte "Not one inch" which will give you some detailed background on the conflict between Russia and Nato.
In the meantime the financial consequences of this mess (see the huge European energy subsidies announced and to be announced) are going to be felt for a generation...
Much better to spend efforts on a peaceful resolution than on sending more arms to Ukraine.
I am not supporting Russian (or Ukranian brutality) just trying to be open minded.
This is claimed a lot by some Europeans of the extreme left and right but (or therefor) I full heartedly disagree. Calls for appeasement politics is empathically understandable but has failed in the face of a dictator who is hell-bent on his perceived mission to enlarge his „Reich“ 80 years ago - and so it is failing today with Putin.
Who could make a peaceful resolution ? Should we negotiate the subjugation of the Ukrainian people - really ? If they are not allowed to decide themself - are we any better then Putin by believing that we have the right to decide for them what is best for them ?
How can one find a peaceful resolution with somebody who has the declared goal of „returning his country back to its glorious historical status“. Could one have avoided the Second World War by seeking a peaceful resolution with Adolf Hitler who clearly wanted to enlarge his „Reich“ at all cost? How would that peace-offer would have looked like and how many Jews and minorities would this „peace-maker“ have been willing to sacrifice? How many generations of Europeans would have grown up in an Autocraty instead of relatively free nations?
Citing Vietnam etc. is one side of the medal - but its incomplete without also citing (western) Europe, Japan, South Korea and well - depending on the perspective - the Balkans. I grew up in a (comparatively) free and democratic society instead of a Nazi-regime thanks to the US will to interfere and I am deeply grateful while at the same time being able to see and criticize what went wrong in some other cases.
It depends of course on the source of electricity, and the efficiencies of the boilers and heat pumps. For most people, the heat pump will be more efficient.
Please tell us more - how did the US start this war in Ukraine ?
I do understand if somebody claims it would have ended already without the US weapons deliveries - but the start of the war ? The US ? Really ? Also in 2014 ? Are you sure you are not blinded by Anti-Americanism that is a bit hard to support with facts in this case ?
War is a continuation of politics by other means, amigo. Indeed most of the West can't tell Ukrainians and Russians apart, in fact even in Soviet times, when US was actually fighting communism/soviets they STILL referred to the other side as "Russkies".
Educate yourself on what the West's non-100-level propaganda folks are saying about the conflict:
That's just scratching the surface, merely ONE layer below the "Russia - bad" idiocy, the mass media and unfortunately Mr. TOMAS PUEYO are spewing.
Unfortunately you'll have to update your MENTAL MODELS to a POST-NATION-STATE world-view, where the world's RESERVE CURRENCY matters more than bloody and senseless patriotism.
We've been living in a global village for many decades. It's time for that GLOBAL sense of SELF-IDENTITY. Refuse to fight for ANYONE - not your employer, not your flag, not even your football team, and certainly not even your ethnicity for you're neither a monkey nor a lizard... or are you? ;)
It's actually a much darker and foggier place, for you're detached from everything past.
For me all this sounds like the typical well-known Anti-Americanism of those people who selectively only read those intellectuals, who reinforce preconceived world-views by explaining every global malaise somehow as being caused by the Americans or the West in General. Usually they even feel very entitled and superior because they presumably see „inner workings of the forces at work“ that us mere naive mortals cant grasp.
The reality however is, that they display the very same mental models and argumentation methods that we know from (and are well researched with) vaccination deniers and conspiracy theory fans of all colors. On the one hand humans derive a feeling of security of finding patterns in our world because this gives us the feeling to be able to predict and manage our destiny somewhat but on the other hand the modern perceived world is much too complex to make sense of it all. So since centuries our minds had the tendency to find simple explanations for all this complexities VERY attractive - offered by conspiracy theories that all follow the same patterns: (1) Some uber-powerful people direct all (bad) things from the shadows and suddenly everything can be easily explained, (2) If you dont believe the claims about the Free-masons, Bilderberger or whoever is presumably behind all this and dare to demand proofs and not just rumors - well you are naive and cant see that „they just act from the shadows“. (3) If sufficient peers of you believe the given theory, then - as social animals - we find it increasingly plausible and proven as well.
BUT wishful thinking is not helping to find a solution in reality - I love peace like everybody else and feel pity for every Russian and Ukrainian soldier and civilian but that doesn’t delude my ability to think clearly and so I understand that negotiations cant make sense if one side has the declared goal of annexing another side against its will. No rumors or insults will change the facts that are clear to see here.
Negotiations with the National Socialists happened but could not prevent the Second World War - because their goal was simply to enlarge their borders and subdue others who most naturally resisted. Same with Putins inner circle - calls for negotiations are emotionally understandable but nevertheless futile and intellectually dishonest.
Everything negotiable has been discussed before the hostilities and it has been very clearly communicated by the Russians that they dont perceive Ukrainian people as different from Russians, their culture not different from theirs and that they therefor deem it right to bring them under the same autocratic rule. Putin declared that his ambitions in Munich 2007 and more recently when he compared his historic mission with the actions of Peter the Great https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/why-putin-needs-peter-great . As we see and hear from the Ukrainians (I am working with Ukrainian refugees in Vienna), they perceive this VERY differently - and they are willing (volunteering in their thousands) to fight for their (relatively more) freedom.
Who are we - and who are you - to believe we / you could negotiate about the freedom or subjugation of Ukrainian people ? It shouldn’t be about us just because we might not like the level of our energy prices right now. Our choice is only if we want to leave the Ukrainians alone and wait who Putins appetite for national greatness will address next - or if we grant them the same right to choose their own best future, their own leaders and their own alliances. Those who are blaming the US to support the Ukrainians and draw questionable parallels to Vietnam, Irak and so on should ask themself where Western Europe, Japan and South Korea would be today without US intervention 80 years ago. Yes - the US believes in Freedom for everybody (according to their beautiful constitution) and they have been willing to support others in their struggle to do so - and do so again in the Ukraine now. I believe that is a GREAT service to mankind and we Europeans should be ashamed for how cowardishly and selfishly we hide behind arguments like the ones you provided. Has the US made mistakes and committed war crimes in the past - certainly !! But have they brought more freedom and happiness for more people than all those countries that have passively stood at the sidelines - absolutely !
So overall I would take a deep breath and a look into the mirror before writing so arrogantly about limited mental models, post-nation-state and so on ;-)
Those are national leaders in Mexico, US, and UN. What do they have to do with conspiracy theories?!
Eastern Ukraine is predominantly Russians and Russian speaking Ukrainians. US pushed Ukraine into the idiotic policy of outlawing Russian in E. Ukraine. And yeah, Putin's actually right about "Kiev-skaya Rus'". I was born and lived in Kiev 1979-1993. I assure you, there's more truth to Putin's statements that we all like to think.
Of course that doesn't mean Putin was justified in his military op. But what is certain is that US/CIA are not that naive. It was widely known that USSR republic independence would present plenty of destabilization opportunities.
You, my friend, just like redneck Hillary, poser Trump, and corrupt Biden are missing the chess game. Russia was always a distraction from China and this foreign policy is not working for the US.
I've been screaming about that to Americans since 2015 (lived in Seattle 1993-2015) and worked in financial management. It's one thing to continue the standard multi-decade if not centry-old game of warmongering and destabilizing other countries... it's another to have self-destructive foreign policy.
Putin would have been quite happy CO-EXISTING with Ukraine, except from Crimea. That had to become Russia's. You have to be very naive to think USSR could be allowed to turn the republics into countries and the main military port with 85% Russians would magically simply sell old Soviet weapons for all the CIA sponsored proxy wars. Russia would continue to simply INFLUENCE countries in their sphere of influence. Now, who do you think is more corrupt Russians or Ukrainians? :) Ask the Wirecard execs. You don't have to take over countries to suck them dry... You can just look at global crises and how US sucks countries dry. "Economic Hitman" much?
Game theory is not conspiracy theory. The world is run by corporations on behalf corporations. It's 100-level propaganda to write about nation-states and flags, the way Tom and you do. Even in the days of East India Company the UK government didn't have a fraction of the wealth and military power of that corporation! That's just 200-level.
____
Don't worry Europe will pivot back to China and India, those 2 aren't blinking, while US is driving with eyes wide shut.
100-level russophobic hit pieces are not just counterproductive for US, but you're needlessly shedding ukrainian blood. Again, I can see why US and the West would. They think eastern europeans are deeply inferior to their Germanic and Anglo superiority, no? They KNOW that both states are equally corrupt. Europe does have an aging population problem and they seem to prefer banging blonde Ukrainians instead of getting Swedish girls gang banged by disgruntled Syrians, Iraqis, Afghans.
They're simply no future without Chinese demand and India sure seems to be just fine buying Russian oil and weapons.
Now when you start selling pathetic "human rights" violations in China, don't forget to write about the oppression of women in India - all of it - the child marriages, the dowry murders... and why not document how many marriage across caste systems take place...
There's no way out, but to look INWARD for US. for 2 reasons.
1. The machine there is complete broken. Just tour NYC, LA, SF, Seattle and see THOUSANDS of homeless people and drug addicts - feces and tents everywhere.
2. China got too big. oopsy.
From the Opium Wars to Fentanyl/Tik-tok, ey :) Didn't take that long. Now how in the world did US let this happen?!
It's possible there was foreign subversion for decades... That would explain the pathetic US education and healthcare systems.
1. Ideological Subversion - from a KGB defector in 1980s! 13 minute clip:
But I personally think it's much more NATURAL for absolute power to corrupt absolutely. Perhaps Hunter Biden is very representative that something is quite rotten in the big apple.
Corporations don't really need flags, but they do need soldiers boys.
Finally, MEDIA.... media are the only thing more powerful than (the English) language. Arab Spring, Orange revolution, Brexit/Bernie/Trump are all merely reflections of social media. Now are we sure the global village is still merely operating on Sudetland premises?! Are we sure old-school censorship attempts will work OR is there a high risk they will ACCELERATE a shift toward multi-polarity?
Are you sure the masses of Europeans and Americans will rise up for a war against Russia and/or China?! Again, only a redneck like Hillary, who was raised in the 1950-60's would still play this idiotic book this day and age.
The MEDIA changed the narrative and the fight is on. But spare us your OLD, STALE, 100-level 1950's politics.
"the medium is the message". even more so than language.
As an European I believe what you write to be correct. I do however question the role of the US in this War. US benefits first hand by being able to sell gas to Europe so why would they want this War to end? Unless the global economy unhinges they also are gambling in my opinion.
The US’ hegemony is based on (1) a world it can police (2) so that trade is maximized, (3) for which freedom and (4) stability are quite important. And in that world, (5) Europe is the biggest partner.
The problem is not that "Putin believes in the law of the strongest. I’m stronger than you, I can do whatever the fuck I want."
The problem is that the other leaders did not believe or understand that all rule based systems are prone to be abused by the strongest man on the block, which given enough time is always guaranteed to show up.
Power projection is how humans have settled disputes for millennials because unlike rules power projection is impeachable by bringing more power to the table.
Thomas, good and useful article regarding the technical advice's. Nevertheless, I think your introduction is a bit simplistic and will deserve, I am sure, another and more scientific analysis with much less pep talk, focusing on the reasons of a war where there are no innocents. When you say Putin is a threat for the Free World, that is true, but, why has the Free World failed integrating Russia? What forces (under the Free World "correct"/"acceptable" umbrella) were acting and awake the monster?
The evidence of engineers does not support your statement ; in any event electricity prices are clearly linked by the natural laws of economics to natural gas prices and will rise, with or without Ev's and with or without the economies that you suggest
I’m not sure which statement you refer to. I’d love yo see the evidence you claim. I studied these topics in my two MSc in engineering, so I’m reasonably acquainted with these topics. Would love to see if you have other evidence to update my beliefs.
Hi Tomas, good message here! I would like to refine your points a little because conserving energy in buildings is my current profession.
First, I am more conservative than you about legionella. I advise keeping the hot water circulating at 60 C and cooling by dilution at the point of use. 60 C is sterilizing, not just retarding the bacteria that cause legionella.
Second, for office buildings and the like, evaluate when they are needed and turn off lighting and HVAC unless requested. Modern buildings can be controlled using occupancy sensors rather than timers and schedulers.
For latitudes less than, say, 35 degrees, air conditioning and dehumidification use tremendous amounts of electricity, much of this derived from oil and gas. Saving power in the summer reduces natural gas demand, so it can be diverted to Northern Europe in the winter.
A little-considered issue in bigger buildings is the amount of air exhausted. That air has to be replaced by fresh air, which has to be cooled and dehumidified or heated. Most air is exhausted from restrooms, reasonably enough. But the fans are often “always on” and on at full speed. This can be modified to an as-needed basis if the engineering is done well. The amount of fresh air has to track with the exhaust.
Your thoughts on diversification of energy sources is spot on. Oddly enough, the earthquakes generated by oil production come from disposal of the rather nasty water that comes up with the gas and petroleum. Pumping that water down a 5 km deep well leads to a 5 km tall water column. The pressure from that water column causes the quakes. Cleaning up the water or very careful injection can avoid the quakes.
Also, replacing incandescent and fluorescent light bulbs with LEDs is a quick win. They pay for themselves many times over with energy savings and reducing the number of bulb changes. Many can work well for 15 years.
Thank you for these additions! Super relevant!
Tomas, I agree with your theme of reducing the West's dependence on the Russian energy, which is reflected in my "like" vote.
However, your statement that the support for the war is waning in Russia is inaccurate. Today, (7 September 2022), Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (CEIP) has issued a report "My Country, Right or Wrong: Russian Public Opinion on Ukraine," https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/09/07/my-country-right-or-wrong-russian-public-opinion-on-ukraine-pub-87803 , which details Russian opinions. Figure 1 of the report shows only mild reduction in support. In March, 53% supported the war definitely and 28% mostly, for the total of 81%. In June, the numbers were 47% + 28% = 75%.
The Russians blame not Putin but the West for their economic decline. The Russians are habituated to the sanctions since 2014. The economic loss is balanced with the national pride about the Russian strength and significance, and the Russians rally round the flag.
I used to think that opinion polls are unreliable because people would not want to risk their freedom by giving answers that contradict the government views. But the authors of the CEIP report assert that the Levada Center poll was conducted according to the international standards.
Victoria
Excellent. You are using your position to advance the moral arc of the world. You make me proud to be a supporter.
That's what this is about: Understand the world to nudge in the right direction!
Some argue that big corporations are responsible for the bulk of emissions and energy consumption, using that defeatist position to rationalize their lack of personal accountability. There's truth to that claim, of course, but they fail to understand the cumulative impact personal choices have on the zeitgeist. When regulation is absent, personal choices fill the gap. Companies that have gone greener and have invested in DEI haven't done so (in many cases) because they've been compelled by regulation. They've done it to attract top-flight talent who value such things. Leadership is also not immune to those cultural influences, making them more likely set greener policies. It's not a silver bullet, but personal choices matter. Thank you for enumerating many of the ways in which we can make an impact. I know my old house could use an insulation upgrade.
One thing you did not mention is recovery and reuse of waste heat . Many industries emit a lot of waste heat in exhaust air and in the process water they sewer. This is low grade energy but it can be used to heat or preheat domestic or industrial water and to heat building air. The business I worked in considered heating air or water with primary energy an energy sin at least 40 years ago but we still generated a lot of waste energy in our air and water effluents that could heat all of the building air and domestic hot water in our little city.
It was one of my obsessions when I studied electricity generation. Seeing new designs use the principle was great. I’m grad school my team and I used this insight to design a device that increased the efficiency of wood burning for cooking in 3rd world countries using the same idea (although we realized the exhaust was overkill there).
All of this to say that you’re right.
Excellent. Thanks. Your insights are always relevant. I am one of your avid reader. Alain Roy
Glad to hear Alain!
Natural gas is methane, CH4, not H2 or hydrogen. Fracking results in fugitive emissions of methane, which is about 25 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than CO2. We know that climate change mitigation requires new reserves of oil, gas and coal to remain in the ground. Climate change will result in wars over declining quality and quantity of food and water. Be careful about what you ask for.
Wow, big mistake. I relied on my recollections from my student times, but they turned out to be wrong. I just updated the article accordingly. Thanks for pointing it out!
If I want to install solar panels in my house, here in Madrid, I have to pay 21% of taxes VAT. Why is that, how a country like Spain don't yet lower taxes on panels.
Yeah I don't think that makes sense. In general VAT should be lower for this, and it's especially true during an energy crisis!
Great article Tomas. Side note : I noticed you used an AI generated image, probably made through MidJourney, am I right ? ;)
Indeed! I'm getting better results with StabilityAI , but still bought MidJourney for now to play with no limits. I'm not a great prompter yet though!
I started to play with MidJourney a few days ago, and I'm blown away by the results. I already generated a satisfying image for the book I'm writing.
And when you think it's like the Apple 2 of AI compared to what is coming...
Do share more! About the book and how you use the generators.
I am so far pretty bad at prompting
Thank you for the additional data, Victoria. Highly relevant. I make an effort to limit the wishful thinking, but the bias is hard to fully check. I’m glad you make part of those checks and balances!
This is a naive American version wrt how force and power work... as well as negotiating peace by saving energy! you're just "...fighting Russians until the last Ukrainian". We, Ukrainians, created this joke in 2015, cause it was bloody obvious back then how US was going to play this.
Write a piece on who starts proxy wars, why, and how it is going. If you can't, then don't venture into these topics, because if you're not helping peace, you ARE shedding peoples' blood by spreading one-sided 100-level propaganda.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_proxy_wars#Cold_War_proxy_wars
Alex Golubev is correct...
Tomas Pueyo, you should focus on the causes of the war....and in particular the history of American failed interference in a handful of countries since Eisenhower...
ranging obviously from Vietnam, S Korea, Iraq, Afghanistan..Libya, the Balkans.
Specifically, you should take time, you are a speed reader I imagine,
to read Mary Sarotte "Not one inch" which will give you some detailed background on the conflict between Russia and Nato.
In the meantime the financial consequences of this mess (see the huge European energy subsidies announced and to be announced) are going to be felt for a generation...
Much better to spend efforts on a peaceful resolution than on sending more arms to Ukraine.
I am not supporting Russian (or Ukranian brutality) just trying to be open minded.
This is claimed a lot by some Europeans of the extreme left and right but (or therefor) I full heartedly disagree. Calls for appeasement politics is empathically understandable but has failed in the face of a dictator who is hell-bent on his perceived mission to enlarge his „Reich“ 80 years ago - and so it is failing today with Putin.
Who could make a peaceful resolution ? Should we negotiate the subjugation of the Ukrainian people - really ? If they are not allowed to decide themself - are we any better then Putin by believing that we have the right to decide for them what is best for them ?
How can one find a peaceful resolution with somebody who has the declared goal of „returning his country back to its glorious historical status“. Could one have avoided the Second World War by seeking a peaceful resolution with Adolf Hitler who clearly wanted to enlarge his „Reich“ at all cost? How would that peace-offer would have looked like and how many Jews and minorities would this „peace-maker“ have been willing to sacrifice? How many generations of Europeans would have grown up in an Autocraty instead of relatively free nations?
Citing Vietnam etc. is one side of the medal - but its incomplete without also citing (western) Europe, Japan, South Korea and well - depending on the perspective - the Balkans. I grew up in a (comparatively) free and democratic society instead of a Nazi-regime thanks to the US will to interfere and I am deeply grateful while at the same time being able to see and criticize what went wrong in some other cases.
By the way, heat pumps, I have one , use much more energy than a gas boiler...
where is the electricity for them and all the millions of EVs going to come from?
It depends of course on the source of electricity, and the efficiencies of the boilers and heat pumps. For most people, the heat pump will be more efficient.
Please tell us more - how did the US start this war in Ukraine ?
I do understand if somebody claims it would have ended already without the US weapons deliveries - but the start of the war ? The US ? Really ? Also in 2014 ? Are you sure you are not blinded by Anti-Americanism that is a bit hard to support with facts in this case ?
War is a continuation of politics by other means, amigo. Indeed most of the West can't tell Ukrainians and Russians apart, in fact even in Soviet times, when US was actually fighting communism/soviets they STILL referred to the other side as "Russkies".
Educate yourself on what the West's non-100-level propaganda folks are saying about the conflict:
1. Ron Paul - The Ukraine War Is A Racket: https://www.eurasiareview.com/25042022-ron-paul-the-ukraine-war-is-a-racket-oped/
2. Chomsky - Diplomatic Settlement Still Possible: https://truthout.org/articles/chomsky-six-months-into-war-diplomatic-settlement-in-ukraine-is-still-possible/
hardly one-sided, btw.
3. Obrador - Mexican president slams NATO policy in Ukraine: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-mexico-caribbean-nato-b9aaddc8e3da3ad2b2cc013a6e8ff4bb
4. Obrador - Mexican president previews Ukraine peace plan after criticizing U.N.
https://www.reuters.com/world/mexican-president-previews-ukraine-peace-plan-after-criticizing-un-2022-09-12/
5. Sachs (UN Advisor, Columbia U, ex-Harvard): Reaching a Long and Lasting Peace in Ukraine: https://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/lljyk5p69dhcrm8epskjc7zh9d9n42
That's just scratching the surface, merely ONE layer below the "Russia - bad" idiocy, the mass media and unfortunately Mr. TOMAS PUEYO are spewing.
Unfortunately you'll have to update your MENTAL MODELS to a POST-NATION-STATE world-view, where the world's RESERVE CURRENCY matters more than bloody and senseless patriotism.
We've been living in a global village for many decades. It's time for that GLOBAL sense of SELF-IDENTITY. Refuse to fight for ANYONE - not your employer, not your flag, not even your football team, and certainly not even your ethnicity for you're neither a monkey nor a lizard... or are you? ;)
It's actually a much darker and foggier place, for you're detached from everything past.
For me all this sounds like the typical well-known Anti-Americanism of those people who selectively only read those intellectuals, who reinforce preconceived world-views by explaining every global malaise somehow as being caused by the Americans or the West in General. Usually they even feel very entitled and superior because they presumably see „inner workings of the forces at work“ that us mere naive mortals cant grasp.
The reality however is, that they display the very same mental models and argumentation methods that we know from (and are well researched with) vaccination deniers and conspiracy theory fans of all colors. On the one hand humans derive a feeling of security of finding patterns in our world because this gives us the feeling to be able to predict and manage our destiny somewhat but on the other hand the modern perceived world is much too complex to make sense of it all. So since centuries our minds had the tendency to find simple explanations for all this complexities VERY attractive - offered by conspiracy theories that all follow the same patterns: (1) Some uber-powerful people direct all (bad) things from the shadows and suddenly everything can be easily explained, (2) If you dont believe the claims about the Free-masons, Bilderberger or whoever is presumably behind all this and dare to demand proofs and not just rumors - well you are naive and cant see that „they just act from the shadows“. (3) If sufficient peers of you believe the given theory, then - as social animals - we find it increasingly plausible and proven as well.
BUT wishful thinking is not helping to find a solution in reality - I love peace like everybody else and feel pity for every Russian and Ukrainian soldier and civilian but that doesn’t delude my ability to think clearly and so I understand that negotiations cant make sense if one side has the declared goal of annexing another side against its will. No rumors or insults will change the facts that are clear to see here.
Negotiations with the National Socialists happened but could not prevent the Second World War - because their goal was simply to enlarge their borders and subdue others who most naturally resisted. Same with Putins inner circle - calls for negotiations are emotionally understandable but nevertheless futile and intellectually dishonest.
Everything negotiable has been discussed before the hostilities and it has been very clearly communicated by the Russians that they dont perceive Ukrainian people as different from Russians, their culture not different from theirs and that they therefor deem it right to bring them under the same autocratic rule. Putin declared that his ambitions in Munich 2007 and more recently when he compared his historic mission with the actions of Peter the Great https://www.russiamatters.org/analysis/why-putin-needs-peter-great . As we see and hear from the Ukrainians (I am working with Ukrainian refugees in Vienna), they perceive this VERY differently - and they are willing (volunteering in their thousands) to fight for their (relatively more) freedom.
Who are we - and who are you - to believe we / you could negotiate about the freedom or subjugation of Ukrainian people ? It shouldn’t be about us just because we might not like the level of our energy prices right now. Our choice is only if we want to leave the Ukrainians alone and wait who Putins appetite for national greatness will address next - or if we grant them the same right to choose their own best future, their own leaders and their own alliances. Those who are blaming the US to support the Ukrainians and draw questionable parallels to Vietnam, Irak and so on should ask themself where Western Europe, Japan and South Korea would be today without US intervention 80 years ago. Yes - the US believes in Freedom for everybody (according to their beautiful constitution) and they have been willing to support others in their struggle to do so - and do so again in the Ukraine now. I believe that is a GREAT service to mankind and we Europeans should be ashamed for how cowardishly and selfishly we hide behind arguments like the ones you provided. Has the US made mistakes and committed war crimes in the past - certainly !! But have they brought more freedom and happiness for more people than all those countries that have passively stood at the sidelines - absolutely !
So overall I would take a deep breath and a look into the mirror before writing so arrogantly about limited mental models, post-nation-state and so on ;-)
Those are national leaders in Mexico, US, and UN. What do they have to do with conspiracy theories?!
Eastern Ukraine is predominantly Russians and Russian speaking Ukrainians. US pushed Ukraine into the idiotic policy of outlawing Russian in E. Ukraine. And yeah, Putin's actually right about "Kiev-skaya Rus'". I was born and lived in Kiev 1979-1993. I assure you, there's more truth to Putin's statements that we all like to think.
Of course that doesn't mean Putin was justified in his military op. But what is certain is that US/CIA are not that naive. It was widely known that USSR republic independence would present plenty of destabilization opportunities.
You, my friend, just like redneck Hillary, poser Trump, and corrupt Biden are missing the chess game. Russia was always a distraction from China and this foreign policy is not working for the US.
I've been screaming about that to Americans since 2015 (lived in Seattle 1993-2015) and worked in financial management. It's one thing to continue the standard multi-decade if not centry-old game of warmongering and destabilizing other countries... it's another to have self-destructive foreign policy.
Putin would have been quite happy CO-EXISTING with Ukraine, except from Crimea. That had to become Russia's. You have to be very naive to think USSR could be allowed to turn the republics into countries and the main military port with 85% Russians would magically simply sell old Soviet weapons for all the CIA sponsored proxy wars. Russia would continue to simply INFLUENCE countries in their sphere of influence. Now, who do you think is more corrupt Russians or Ukrainians? :) Ask the Wirecard execs. You don't have to take over countries to suck them dry... You can just look at global crises and how US sucks countries dry. "Economic Hitman" much?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Confessions_of_an_Economic_Hit_Man
Game theory is not conspiracy theory. The world is run by corporations on behalf corporations. It's 100-level propaganda to write about nation-states and flags, the way Tom and you do. Even in the days of East India Company the UK government didn't have a fraction of the wealth and military power of that corporation! That's just 200-level.
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Don't worry Europe will pivot back to China and India, those 2 aren't blinking, while US is driving with eyes wide shut.
100-level russophobic hit pieces are not just counterproductive for US, but you're needlessly shedding ukrainian blood. Again, I can see why US and the West would. They think eastern europeans are deeply inferior to their Germanic and Anglo superiority, no? They KNOW that both states are equally corrupt. Europe does have an aging population problem and they seem to prefer banging blonde Ukrainians instead of getting Swedish girls gang banged by disgruntled Syrians, Iraqis, Afghans.
They're simply no future without Chinese demand and India sure seems to be just fine buying Russian oil and weapons.
Now when you start selling pathetic "human rights" violations in China, don't forget to write about the oppression of women in India - all of it - the child marriages, the dowry murders... and why not document how many marriage across caste systems take place...
There's no way out, but to look INWARD for US. for 2 reasons.
1. The machine there is complete broken. Just tour NYC, LA, SF, Seattle and see THOUSANDS of homeless people and drug addicts - feces and tents everywhere.
2. China got too big. oopsy.
From the Opium Wars to Fentanyl/Tik-tok, ey :) Didn't take that long. Now how in the world did US let this happen?!
It's possible there was foreign subversion for decades... That would explain the pathetic US education and healthcare systems.
1. Ideological Subversion - from a KGB defector in 1980s! 13 minute clip:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bX3EZCVj2XA
2. Here's the 1-hour LECTURE he gave to the Western media in the 1980s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y9TviIuXPSE
But I personally think it's much more NATURAL for absolute power to corrupt absolutely. Perhaps Hunter Biden is very representative that something is quite rotten in the big apple.
Corporations don't really need flags, but they do need soldiers boys.
http://www.gangsofamerica.com/gangsofamerica.pdf
Finally, MEDIA.... media are the only thing more powerful than (the English) language. Arab Spring, Orange revolution, Brexit/Bernie/Trump are all merely reflections of social media. Now are we sure the global village is still merely operating on Sudetland premises?! Are we sure old-school censorship attempts will work OR is there a high risk they will ACCELERATE a shift toward multi-polarity?
Are you sure the masses of Europeans and Americans will rise up for a war against Russia and/or China?! Again, only a redneck like Hillary, who was raised in the 1950-60's would still play this idiotic book this day and age.
The MEDIA changed the narrative and the fight is on. But spare us your OLD, STALE, 100-level 1950's politics.
"the medium is the message". even more so than language.
What a bullshit you write constantly. And a lot of it. Instead you could write one sentence - I hate USA :).
In my perspective I look at it very simply. What bad did for me or my country USA? Nothing. On the contrary, only good things.
What bad did for me or my country Russia? A lot! And only bad things.
As an European I believe what you write to be correct. I do however question the role of the US in this War. US benefits first hand by being able to sell gas to Europe so why would they want this War to end? Unless the global economy unhinges they also are gambling in my opinion.
The US’ hegemony is based on (1) a world it can police (2) so that trade is maximized, (3) for which freedom and (4) stability are quite important. And in that world, (5) Europe is the biggest partner.
Russia threatened all 5 of these principles.
The problem is not that "Putin believes in the law of the strongest. I’m stronger than you, I can do whatever the fuck I want."
The problem is that the other leaders did not believe or understand that all rule based systems are prone to be abused by the strongest man on the block, which given enough time is always guaranteed to show up.
Power projection is how humans have settled disputes for millennials because unlike rules power projection is impeachable by bringing more power to the table.
Have you read the work of Jason Lowery?
https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/schrodingers-gun
Thomas, good and useful article regarding the technical advice's. Nevertheless, I think your introduction is a bit simplistic and will deserve, I am sure, another and more scientific analysis with much less pep talk, focusing on the reasons of a war where there are no innocents. When you say Putin is a threat for the Free World, that is true, but, why has the Free World failed integrating Russia? What forces (under the Free World "correct"/"acceptable" umbrella) were acting and awake the monster?
I think you mean this
https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/problem-of-russia
Note: pre-invasion
The evidence of engineers does not support your statement ; in any event electricity prices are clearly linked by the natural laws of economics to natural gas prices and will rise, with or without Ev's and with or without the economies that you suggest
I’m not sure which statement you refer to. I’d love yo see the evidence you claim. I studied these topics in my two MSc in engineering, so I’m reasonably acquainted with these topics. Would love to see if you have other evidence to update my beliefs.