Something I don't think every week, but definitely have been meaning to comment before as it does occur more often than not: as a colorblind (red/green) person, some of your maps and graphs are frustratingly incomprehensible due to the color schemes used. For (a tiny) example, in this piece on your first map you mention "red arrows" and only from the fact that there were very few arrows on the map to choose from + process of elimination, could i understand which ones you were referring to.
I realize this is not your "fault" Tomas as I imagine many of these visuals are taken directly from other sources, but perhaps in future pieces there could be some middle ground, whether its a couple extra sentences to very very explicitly call attention to certain (colorblind sensitive) colored things of interest, or perhaps there are AI tools that could quickly and effectively "convert" a map into one that is more friendly and useful for all beholders. On this note, perhaps there is even something i could do on the "client" side to run images through to make them more visible to me [will google this shortly 😊]
Love all of your analyses and very excited to engage more deeply and vividly in future! Thanks as always.
I try to be mindful of that. For example, my heatmaps are always blue / red instead of green / red for that reason. But I don't always remember. This message will help. Don't hesitate to call it out any time!
I find the most severe/frequent offenders to be line graphs that have colors that are very close to each other, and because there is only a very small sample of color (the line itself + small square Key), the issue becomes even more exacerbated.
I read this with great interest. One thing that I found missed is that priority 3 could do with more fleshing out. You mention that the US used a puppet to control Iran, but I think it's important to understand that in the early 1950's Iran felt the US was its greatest friend. At that time Iran had a democratically elected government and was fighting for independence from England (sound familiar?) The betrayal of this with the US-supported toppling of Mosaddegh followed by the puppet ruler that you mentioned is still huge. This happened a generation after WWII and we don't think twice when we talk about the scar WWII left on the psyche of Israel.
It is important to understand why the US is considered enemy #1 and in my mind the betrayal plays a major part.
Great article. If I were grand poobah of all things I'd drop all US sanctions against Iran, and try other ways to move it away from the theocracy. Also, I'd like normalized relations between the US and Iran so that I could visit Iran safely. I find the Iranian culture and history more interesting, and more relevant to the enlightment, than the Arab cultures and history. Growing up in the US (1960s and 70s) I knew so many Persians. My first girlfriend (kindergarten) was Iranian:) Freshman year of college, my RAs Iranian girlfriend brought back a 2kg tin of caviar after Christmas break (just 6 weeks before the 1979 revolution). Nobody else liked caviar. I supplied the champagne, she supplied the caviar, and we gorged. I miss that debauchery:) Looking forward to your follow up article. I wonder how much Chinese influence there is in Iran. I suspect more and more.
Remember this is a theocracy that before it was threatened by anyone, dedicated itself to destruction. I too have pleasant memories of college Iranian friends who were displaced by the mullahs. Trump gave them a very big chance—-they declined.
“The Iranian Government fears being toppled, so it has been developing the nuclear bomb.”
Iran is definitively not developing nuclear weapons. Both US and Israeli intelligence briefs in the days/weeks leading up to Israel’s attack clearly show this. Khamenei continues to uphold the fatwa against WMD generally, and nuclear weapons specifically.
It has been Iran’s greatest strategic weakness because the only way to guarantee sovereignty in the region (when opposing the US/Israeli imperial machine) is to have a nuclear weapon.
Tomas - I am a big fan of your work and thoroughly enjoy reading your posts. But I want to flag one statement you have in this "The Iranian government fears being toppled, so it has been developing the nuclear bomb." The conclusion of 18 U.S. intelligence agencies, as reported by the Director of National Intelligence, is that Iran is not currently seeking a nuclear bomb. Additionally, the IAEA has stated as recently as yesterday they have no proof Iran is currently seeking a nuclear bomb. Happy to provide links for those if needed. The statement is important because it is being used as a casus belli by Israel to attack Iran despite no evidence, as was the case with the U.S./Iraq in 2003.
I wonder how the weakening of Iran might affect the desire of Azerbaijanis on both sides of the border for unification. You seem to consider this scenario quite unlikely - and, to be honest, so do I - but this idea has long circulated in Azerbaijan (the country).
A blazingly complex region, historically speaking with nationalistic, linguistic, religious, geographic differences throughout. Thanks. Without its oil fields there would be no temptations.
Dear Mr. Pueyo, hats off to you for such a lucid post. Thanks a million. Make a person wonder if you can do such a clear piece about the giant Dezerter Market in Tbilisi, and the times that ended the Mosaddegh regime? Thanks again for this post, so clear and easy to understand.
Very interesting article, and I learned a lot about Iran in reading this. I've been a long-time subscriber but haven't been reading any of the articles for quite a while, seems that I only drop in when "free" time is created due to unfortunate circumstances. But I keep my subscription because I have enjoyed the few articles that I have read in the past 2+ years; the covid pandemic's start is my marker for when I first started reading here. Glad to see you're still going strong, Tomas.
At this writing my mother is in ICU after having had a stroke almost 3 weeks ago, and appeared to be on the path to recovery until last Thursday. While still alive on IV fluids and oxygen, she will not be leaving the hospital except for perhaps hospice. Medical technology has come a very long way in the past few decades but we still have not been able to improve quality of life. My four siblings and I must collectively decide when to end this. It is past time but our youngest sister is still unwilling. However it will likely happen in the next few days due to the constraints of Medicare and Kaiser.
Good article, I've talked to people in the US who just put Iran in the basket of Arab/Muslim nations and fail to grasp the significant differences between it and say UAE, Iraq or Yemen. The biggest one, which you well-explained, is the size and scale of Iran. Another component which you didn't mention is their relatively high human capital level for the region.
Halfway through and loving it as usual.
Something I don't think every week, but definitely have been meaning to comment before as it does occur more often than not: as a colorblind (red/green) person, some of your maps and graphs are frustratingly incomprehensible due to the color schemes used. For (a tiny) example, in this piece on your first map you mention "red arrows" and only from the fact that there were very few arrows on the map to choose from + process of elimination, could i understand which ones you were referring to.
I realize this is not your "fault" Tomas as I imagine many of these visuals are taken directly from other sources, but perhaps in future pieces there could be some middle ground, whether its a couple extra sentences to very very explicitly call attention to certain (colorblind sensitive) colored things of interest, or perhaps there are AI tools that could quickly and effectively "convert" a map into one that is more friendly and useful for all beholders. On this note, perhaps there is even something i could do on the "client" side to run images through to make them more visible to me [will google this shortly 😊]
Love all of your analyses and very excited to engage more deeply and vividly in future! Thanks as always.
Thanks Brad.
I try to be mindful of that. For example, my heatmaps are always blue / red instead of green / red for that reason. But I don't always remember. This message will help. Don't hesitate to call it out any time!
We SUPER appreciate the blue/red heatmaps!
I find the most severe/frequent offenders to be line graphs that have colors that are very close to each other, and because there is only a very small sample of color (the line itself + small square Key), the issue becomes even more exacerbated.
Complicated.
I read this with great interest. One thing that I found missed is that priority 3 could do with more fleshing out. You mention that the US used a puppet to control Iran, but I think it's important to understand that in the early 1950's Iran felt the US was its greatest friend. At that time Iran had a democratically elected government and was fighting for independence from England (sound familiar?) The betrayal of this with the US-supported toppling of Mosaddegh followed by the puppet ruler that you mentioned is still huge. This happened a generation after WWII and we don't think twice when we talk about the scar WWII left on the psyche of Israel.
It is important to understand why the US is considered enemy #1 and in my mind the betrayal plays a major part.
Great article. If I were grand poobah of all things I'd drop all US sanctions against Iran, and try other ways to move it away from the theocracy. Also, I'd like normalized relations between the US and Iran so that I could visit Iran safely. I find the Iranian culture and history more interesting, and more relevant to the enlightment, than the Arab cultures and history. Growing up in the US (1960s and 70s) I knew so many Persians. My first girlfriend (kindergarten) was Iranian:) Freshman year of college, my RAs Iranian girlfriend brought back a 2kg tin of caviar after Christmas break (just 6 weeks before the 1979 revolution). Nobody else liked caviar. I supplied the champagne, she supplied the caviar, and we gorged. I miss that debauchery:) Looking forward to your follow up article. I wonder how much Chinese influence there is in Iran. I suspect more and more.
Nice memory!
Unfortunately you need two to get peace...
I believe that unilateral removal of sanctions by the US would increase US security.
Remember this is a theocracy that before it was threatened by anyone, dedicated itself to destruction. I too have pleasant memories of college Iranian friends who were displaced by the mullahs. Trump gave them a very big chance—-they declined.
Excellent discussion
“The Iranian Government fears being toppled, so it has been developing the nuclear bomb.”
Iran is definitively not developing nuclear weapons. Both US and Israeli intelligence briefs in the days/weeks leading up to Israel’s attack clearly show this. Khamenei continues to uphold the fatwa against WMD generally, and nuclear weapons specifically.
It has been Iran’s greatest strategic weakness because the only way to guarantee sovereignty in the region (when opposing the US/Israeli imperial machine) is to have a nuclear weapon.
Definitely? So many billions for uranium enrichment to very high levels were for??
Tomas - I am a big fan of your work and thoroughly enjoy reading your posts. But I want to flag one statement you have in this "The Iranian government fears being toppled, so it has been developing the nuclear bomb." The conclusion of 18 U.S. intelligence agencies, as reported by the Director of National Intelligence, is that Iran is not currently seeking a nuclear bomb. Additionally, the IAEA has stated as recently as yesterday they have no proof Iran is currently seeking a nuclear bomb. Happy to provide links for those if needed. The statement is important because it is being used as a casus belli by Israel to attack Iran despite no evidence, as was the case with the U.S./Iraq in 2003.
This article was very informative, thank you.
I wonder how the weakening of Iran might affect the desire of Azerbaijanis on both sides of the border for unification. You seem to consider this scenario quite unlikely - and, to be honest, so do I - but this idea has long circulated in Azerbaijan (the country).
A blazingly complex region, historically speaking with nationalistic, linguistic, religious, geographic differences throughout. Thanks. Without its oil fields there would be no temptations.
Want to talk about impregnable countries? New Zealand isn’t even on the map (just Stewart Island and a slither of Fiordland)
Dear Mr. Pueyo, hats off to you for such a lucid post. Thanks a million. Make a person wonder if you can do such a clear piece about the giant Dezerter Market in Tbilisi, and the times that ended the Mosaddegh regime? Thanks again for this post, so clear and easy to understand.
My opinion on this matter https://open.substack.com/pub/arekodrzeczy/p/atak-na-iran-nienudna-polityka-trumpa?utm_source=share&utm_medium=android&r=5vktav
Very interesting article, and I learned a lot about Iran in reading this. I've been a long-time subscriber but haven't been reading any of the articles for quite a while, seems that I only drop in when "free" time is created due to unfortunate circumstances. But I keep my subscription because I have enjoyed the few articles that I have read in the past 2+ years; the covid pandemic's start is my marker for when I first started reading here. Glad to see you're still going strong, Tomas.
At this writing my mother is in ICU after having had a stroke almost 3 weeks ago, and appeared to be on the path to recovery until last Thursday. While still alive on IV fluids and oxygen, she will not be leaving the hospital except for perhaps hospice. Medical technology has come a very long way in the past few decades but we still have not been able to improve quality of life. My four siblings and I must collectively decide when to end this. It is past time but our youngest sister is still unwilling. However it will likely happen in the next few days due to the constraints of Medicare and Kaiser.
Very nice piece. Perhaps a Persian/Iranian sociocultural uniqueness based on geography compared to other countries comparison?
Thomas, truly excellent, thank you. Too often people forget that geography matters!
Good article, I've talked to people in the US who just put Iran in the basket of Arab/Muslim nations and fail to grasp the significant differences between it and say UAE, Iraq or Yemen. The biggest one, which you well-explained, is the size and scale of Iran. Another component which you didn't mention is their relatively high human capital level for the region.