Your work is FANTASTIC---so I offer an idea....as a cultural sociologist I watch how symbols are transformed. Can you use your reach to transform the symbol "Z"? Instead of it being anti Ukraine, let's have it be seen as PRO Z-elensky.....that the Z shows SUPPORT for Ukraine. If we began a global movement that Z is really a way for people (and those in the Russian military who put it on their equipment) to show SUPPORT for Zelensky it would create all sorts of confusion. I think we need to take seriously that Putin reveres his status in judo---which teaches how to use the power and energy of the opponent to be used against them I think we need to do the same with Putin...use the "Z" against him....have it become the symbol of Ukraine and Z-elensky. Thanks for using your social media reach to see if we can have this happen. Thanks again for your work.
Well, this is arriving a little late. First off, excellent article as always.
The simple truth is after Russia turned its back on R&D upon the collapse of the Soviet Union and concentrated on its natural resources, it's made itself far more fragile.
An economy which exports mainly raw commodities is an economy which has to be incredibly open because it's dependent on the outside world to supply everything else it needs.
So, Russia, like many African countries albeit in far more dire straits, needs the global economy way more than it should.
The second problem is that these economies are highly susceptible to fluctuations in demand. This is true of any mono product economy but much more true if that prodyct is oil and gas.
If you are mainly exporting cars, a fall in demand for vehicles will certainly hit your economy hard. But an economy that can make cars can probably make glass, electronics, steel, and other kinds of vehicles. Its specialization is transferable because it's based far more on the knowledge of its people rather than geographical accidents like mines and wells.
That's the problem with seemingly sensible advice like comparative advantage and specialization: efficiency in the short-term is simply the acceptance of fragility in the long-term.
This is apart from the other oft cited and obvious problems with Russia and similar states: corruption, dictatorship, etc.
Will the event alert other nations to the dangers of globalization and perhaps, a little more self-reliance? Only the future can answer certain questions.
What is clear is this is a turning point. It would be foolhardy for all parties involved to squander it.
Thanks, nice article! Don't feel there is much to argue, but it maybe makes sense to add some touches:
- Russia's economy is very unevenly affected with these events, so it's hard to predict how large will be this fall. However, speaking of airlines, it is even worse than "not being able to fly outside". A large share of these planes is leased, and now the contracts are going to be terminated. Even if Russia keeps ("nationalizes") the planes, they are likely to be arrested even in neutral countries. There is also no way to perform maintenance for these Boeings and Airbuses (that consitute most fleet) -- there are no spare parts and licensed workshops. To make things worse, the largest share of Russian civil airfleet is registered in Bermuda (due legal/tax considerations), and now they suspend their "airworthiness certificates", which makes int'l flights impossible (and even domestic flights won't be technically legal).
- Crypto isn't a silver bullet. There were issues with Canadian truckers, and now some large exchanges like Coinbase and FTX suspended Russian accounts, so getting money this way isn't going to be easy.
- The generation gap is partly a puzzle for me. It's easy to say that younger people are more open or flexible or whatever, but the baby boomer generation is the people who experienced Soviet propaganda (and it's fall) firsthand, so in theory they should have been more skeptical.
- The boycott/shutdown by IT companies is a double-edged sword. Now Zelensky calls to companies like Microsoft to suspend their licenses, but such measures actually hit precisely the people who want to read/spread alternative news and act together. People in Russia need VPNs and IT products to do that, but now they will have hard time obtaining them. (There is a call to int'l IT companes by the Russian NGO Roskomsvoboda, I hope it will be taken into account).
- I have uneasy feelings about this whole "online" part of the war. It all makes easy to take sides and view everything in black and white colors with fakes coming from everywhere. It means that (a) even legitimate concerns of the losing (on the web) side will be largely discarded; (b) it's going to be hard to persuade people they are wrong in they opinions if they see obvious fakes coming from the opponents ("so their picture is just a lie"). Previously we have seen somewhat similar "media wars" in Georgia (2008) and Chechnya (late 90s), with West mostly taking side against Russia, though I personally believe those cases were far less clear-cut and more nuanced.
Muchas gracias por sus luminosos artículos, nos dan la oportunidad de informarnos acerca de la complejidad del mundo actual. Respecto a la brutal invasión de Ucrania, además de la fortaleza material de cada contendiente, es necesario tener voluntad de vencer. Por razones morales, combaten por la libertad de su gente y la defensa de su tierra creo que los ucranianos nos dan un gran ejemplo de patriotismo.
Re BTC: network effects apply very strongly to money, but trust is equally important. Cutting off Russia's access to its foreign exchange "reserves" has sent a powerful message to the rest of the world and particularly China.
Gold may have its negatives but several thousand years of network effects don't disappear overnight.
Thanks Tomas. A great article. Any chance of a expose on the reluctance of Germany and others to stand firm on sanctions, both now and historically? Why is Europe generally so short sighted?
Thank you, Tomas, for another timely and thoughtful analysis. A few months ago you released a note about the ascendancy of blockchain growing the rival the power of traditional nation states, and a few point-counterpoints evolved in the comments. Now, unfortunately, some of the themes from that conversation has become animated on the world stage - and with tragic consequences for many of our fellow travelers. Specifically, the overwhelming advantages in digital and networking pressure that the West can deploy are powerful levers of coercion, but lack the direct "stopping power" of the physical. NATO conventional arms would make short work of Mr. Putin's military, but are unable to fully engage due to the physical stopping power of Mr. Putin's WMD stockpile - just as the Russian brutality of civilians has thus far failed to coerce the cessation of their resistance. I fear that the possession of nuclear weapons becomes something of a "speed of light" limit that constrains the effectiveness of coercion. A man willing to fight on regardless of his broken arm will not be submitted by an arm-bar...
Tom, great post as usual. I follow a dialectic thinking, so - with all due respect - I would like to hear your views on a few issues that may go opposite to your conclusions:
1) Network effects: I understand your point of Russia becoming the loser when disconnected from the main network, but what if China + Russia + India (?) + ASEAN form a second network as strong as that of the US + Europe? What are the long term implications?
2) What if the Metaverse is not evenly distributed - ie, US started to focus on social issues when GDP per capita exceeded US$29k. While advanced economies become increasingly more services oriented, what if manufacturing and infrastructure continue to be the main driver of economic growth for eastern countries such as India, Russia, China and ASEAN nations?
3) While the disconnection from SWIFT and freezing of foreign reserves is a major weapon against unreliable nations today, don´t you think it will backfire against the USD position as the global reserve currency in the long run?
4) The bifurcation of the web into Western and Asian nodes may reduce economies and market potential for tech companies, which could have a negative impact on valuations and bring inefficiencies to the global economy. So the short etrm victory now may have long term negative financial implications, don´t you think?
5) The overall trend against globalization is a “net negative” for the whole world in my view, implying higher inflation, less growth and more poverty. How to reconcile the need for security (food, supply chain, war) with long term economic growth?
6) Don´t you think excessive focus on the “Metaverse” may lead to insufficient investments in the raw materials that power the economy, such as oil, palladium, nickel, cobalt etc?
I have been giving a lot of thought on these topics in recent weeks and I would love to get your 2 cents on them 😉
Your work is FANTASTIC---so I offer an idea....as a cultural sociologist I watch how symbols are transformed. Can you use your reach to transform the symbol "Z"? Instead of it being anti Ukraine, let's have it be seen as PRO Z-elensky.....that the Z shows SUPPORT for Ukraine. If we began a global movement that Z is really a way for people (and those in the Russian military who put it on their equipment) to show SUPPORT for Zelensky it would create all sorts of confusion. I think we need to take seriously that Putin reveres his status in judo---which teaches how to use the power and energy of the opponent to be used against them I think we need to do the same with Putin...use the "Z" against him....have it become the symbol of Ukraine and Z-elensky. Thanks for using your social media reach to see if we can have this happen. Thanks again for your work.
Well, this is arriving a little late. First off, excellent article as always.
The simple truth is after Russia turned its back on R&D upon the collapse of the Soviet Union and concentrated on its natural resources, it's made itself far more fragile.
An economy which exports mainly raw commodities is an economy which has to be incredibly open because it's dependent on the outside world to supply everything else it needs.
So, Russia, like many African countries albeit in far more dire straits, needs the global economy way more than it should.
The second problem is that these economies are highly susceptible to fluctuations in demand. This is true of any mono product economy but much more true if that prodyct is oil and gas.
If you are mainly exporting cars, a fall in demand for vehicles will certainly hit your economy hard. But an economy that can make cars can probably make glass, electronics, steel, and other kinds of vehicles. Its specialization is transferable because it's based far more on the knowledge of its people rather than geographical accidents like mines and wells.
That's the problem with seemingly sensible advice like comparative advantage and specialization: efficiency in the short-term is simply the acceptance of fragility in the long-term.
This is apart from the other oft cited and obvious problems with Russia and similar states: corruption, dictatorship, etc.
Will the event alert other nations to the dangers of globalization and perhaps, a little more self-reliance? Only the future can answer certain questions.
What is clear is this is a turning point. It would be foolhardy for all parties involved to squander it.
Tomas Excellent as always. Thank you.
Can't help noticing that the ANEW illustration looks very much like Brexit-as-act-of-self-harm as much as sanctions on Russia...
Thanks, nice article! Don't feel there is much to argue, but it maybe makes sense to add some touches:
- Russia's economy is very unevenly affected with these events, so it's hard to predict how large will be this fall. However, speaking of airlines, it is even worse than "not being able to fly outside". A large share of these planes is leased, and now the contracts are going to be terminated. Even if Russia keeps ("nationalizes") the planes, they are likely to be arrested even in neutral countries. There is also no way to perform maintenance for these Boeings and Airbuses (that consitute most fleet) -- there are no spare parts and licensed workshops. To make things worse, the largest share of Russian civil airfleet is registered in Bermuda (due legal/tax considerations), and now they suspend their "airworthiness certificates", which makes int'l flights impossible (and even domestic flights won't be technically legal).
- Crypto isn't a silver bullet. There were issues with Canadian truckers, and now some large exchanges like Coinbase and FTX suspended Russian accounts, so getting money this way isn't going to be easy.
- The generation gap is partly a puzzle for me. It's easy to say that younger people are more open or flexible or whatever, but the baby boomer generation is the people who experienced Soviet propaganda (and it's fall) firsthand, so in theory they should have been more skeptical.
- The boycott/shutdown by IT companies is a double-edged sword. Now Zelensky calls to companies like Microsoft to suspend their licenses, but such measures actually hit precisely the people who want to read/spread alternative news and act together. People in Russia need VPNs and IT products to do that, but now they will have hard time obtaining them. (There is a call to int'l IT companes by the Russian NGO Roskomsvoboda, I hope it will be taken into account).
- I have uneasy feelings about this whole "online" part of the war. It all makes easy to take sides and view everything in black and white colors with fakes coming from everywhere. It means that (a) even legitimate concerns of the losing (on the web) side will be largely discarded; (b) it's going to be hard to persuade people they are wrong in they opinions if they see obvious fakes coming from the opponents ("so their picture is just a lie"). Previously we have seen somewhat similar "media wars" in Georgia (2008) and Chechnya (late 90s), with West mostly taking side against Russia, though I personally believe those cases were far less clear-cut and more nuanced.
Where were Anonymous whilst Western governments were denying rights to their citizens over the last few years?
https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/the-proposed-removal-of-human-rights?s=w
Muchas gracias por sus luminosos artículos, nos dan la oportunidad de informarnos acerca de la complejidad del mundo actual. Respecto a la brutal invasión de Ucrania, además de la fortaleza material de cada contendiente, es necesario tener voluntad de vencer. Por razones morales, combaten por la libertad de su gente y la defensa de su tierra creo que los ucranianos nos dan un gran ejemplo de patriotismo.
Re BTC: network effects apply very strongly to money, but trust is equally important. Cutting off Russia's access to its foreign exchange "reserves" has sent a powerful message to the rest of the world and particularly China.
Gold may have its negatives but several thousand years of network effects don't disappear overnight.
Thanks Tomas. A great article. Any chance of a expose on the reluctance of Germany and others to stand firm on sanctions, both now and historically? Why is Europe generally so short sighted?
Great article Tomas ;)
Gracias por el mensaje de esperanza y la gran cantidad de información del artículo¡¡
Fascinating as always, and thank you for the message of hope...
Thank you, Tomas, for another timely and thoughtful analysis. A few months ago you released a note about the ascendancy of blockchain growing the rival the power of traditional nation states, and a few point-counterpoints evolved in the comments. Now, unfortunately, some of the themes from that conversation has become animated on the world stage - and with tragic consequences for many of our fellow travelers. Specifically, the overwhelming advantages in digital and networking pressure that the West can deploy are powerful levers of coercion, but lack the direct "stopping power" of the physical. NATO conventional arms would make short work of Mr. Putin's military, but are unable to fully engage due to the physical stopping power of Mr. Putin's WMD stockpile - just as the Russian brutality of civilians has thus far failed to coerce the cessation of their resistance. I fear that the possession of nuclear weapons becomes something of a "speed of light" limit that constrains the effectiveness of coercion. A man willing to fight on regardless of his broken arm will not be submitted by an arm-bar...
“Nobody can steal your Bitcoin”, I’m fairly certain this isn’t accurate.
Tom, great post as usual. I follow a dialectic thinking, so - with all due respect - I would like to hear your views on a few issues that may go opposite to your conclusions:
1) Network effects: I understand your point of Russia becoming the loser when disconnected from the main network, but what if China + Russia + India (?) + ASEAN form a second network as strong as that of the US + Europe? What are the long term implications?
2) What if the Metaverse is not evenly distributed - ie, US started to focus on social issues when GDP per capita exceeded US$29k. While advanced economies become increasingly more services oriented, what if manufacturing and infrastructure continue to be the main driver of economic growth for eastern countries such as India, Russia, China and ASEAN nations?
3) While the disconnection from SWIFT and freezing of foreign reserves is a major weapon against unreliable nations today, don´t you think it will backfire against the USD position as the global reserve currency in the long run?
4) The bifurcation of the web into Western and Asian nodes may reduce economies and market potential for tech companies, which could have a negative impact on valuations and bring inefficiencies to the global economy. So the short etrm victory now may have long term negative financial implications, don´t you think?
5) The overall trend against globalization is a “net negative” for the whole world in my view, implying higher inflation, less growth and more poverty. How to reconcile the need for security (food, supply chain, war) with long term economic growth?
6) Don´t you think excessive focus on the “Metaverse” may lead to insufficient investments in the raw materials that power the economy, such as oil, palladium, nickel, cobalt etc?
I have been giving a lot of thought on these topics in recent weeks and I would love to get your 2 cents on them 😉
Muchas gracias por sus luminosos artículos, nos da la oportunidad de comprender un poco mejor el complejo mundo actual a muchos.