Share this comment
Great article as usual Tomas.
In this tweet twitter.com/balajis/sta… Balaji makes these arguments, (among others that I don't mention because I think they are weaker) :
- Just the fact that there is China means at least two AGIs, not one (so, the implicit argument is that any voluntary slowdown in the development of an American/Western AGI…
Great article as usual Tomas.
In this tweet https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1726171850777170015 Balaji makes these arguments, (among others that I don't mention because I think they are weaker) :
- Just the fact that there is China means at least two AGIs, not one (so, the implicit argument is that any voluntary slowdown in the development of an American/Western AGI will give a Chinese AGI a greater chance of taking the lead).
- There is enough friction in the real, physical world, to prevent the first superintelligence from instantly taking over the world before there are others to counterbalance it
- (from this tweet https://twitter.com/balajis/status/1726933398374199425) The best way forward to try to solve the AI alignment model is to have multiple open sources AGIs competing against each other, while also cooperating
- By the time an AGI comes we’ll probably have private key control for everything, and those are cryptographically difficult for even an AI to break into (implicit argument: we will have encryption algorithms resistant to quantum computers, which will be difficult even for an AGI to break)
What do you think of these arguments?
As usual, fantastic comment. I hadn't seen Balaji's tweet.
The polytheistic argument relies on the digital/analog argument. This is where we disagree. I'll write about it in my post for tomorrow. The gist of this is now, you can open companies, bank accounts, stock market accounts and so on digitally. You can make transactions. You can hack into people's accounts to take their money, send money through crypto. You can hire people digitally through remote work. You can send to China blueprints of stuff you want them to build, and they just send it to you. You can have your workers execute for you. Once you build your own factories, you are unbridled, especially if you start with multi-purpose robots—which is what this type of AGI would do. This indeed might take some time, but it might just be months. By this time, the AGI might have taken over control of the digital world, which includes nixing any competing AGI.
Crypto is only as strong at the people holding it. If social engineering still works when AGI appears, it's no barrier