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The logic for replacing current driven rides seems reasonable. However, thereafter - especially in crowded non US cities - the possibility of replacing mass transit is going to be limited by road capacity. There is simply no room on the road to move thousands of passengers off mass transit and into self driving cars, even if they are smaller and faster than current human driven cars. Traffic will always grow to fill the roads available and that will happen long before they can out compete mass transit in cities.

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Another advantage to autonomous vehicles will be their ability to communicate with each and form convoys on the interstate and work with signals and traffic controls in cities. This wil allow more cars to be on the road---especially considering traffic is often caused by the human element in combination with congestion.

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Self driving cars would not be able to replace the Tokyo subways and trains, and would be hard to compete with Japanese taxis which are numerous, clean and reliable, although expensive. Some road space can be recovered by eliminating on street parking, self driving cars won’t park except at dedicated recharging garages.

Self driving buses can eliminate some cars, and deal with the current shortage of bus and taxi drivers in Japan (a reason taxis are expensive there). One company Tier4 is already providing autonomous buses service in a small city in Japan.

https://solutions.tier4.jp/l4ride

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