This is 2035 — not 2050. We are probably already at peak oil and the decline of fossil fuels will decrease nonlinearly due to compounding improvements in solar and batteries. The extent that some countries can escape this through diversification (UAE) is a relevant and interesting question.
I really value your opinion, as I've mentioned multiple times, but, in this case, I think you're the one doing a lot of wishful thinking, especially in your 2050 geopolitical predictions. And I'm really failing to understand your prediction for Angola. First of all, ethnic conflict in Angola is practically non-existent since the end of the civil war. Also, according to v-dem and eiu, it's currently an hybrid regime, not an authoritarian state (like your graph says). Second, its internal skirmishes are miniscule when compared to Nigeria and Chad (both in number of casualties and the fact that they don't have the Islamic State on their doorstep). Also, the conflict is exclusive to the exclave of Cabinda, which happens to have all the oil reserves, and that's the big reason there's a fight. If the value of oil is gone, Cabinda has even less reason for fighting.
Angola has a lot of problems and, if the value of oil really falls like you say, Luanda might lose its status as one of the richest and most developped cities in sub-saharan Africa, but I don't see the country plummeting into a Civil War (again); and also don't see them becoming a "strong democracy", out of nowhere. If things go well, they'll simply continued slowly democratizing, like they've had in the last 20 years.
I am indeed quite hopeful, and my optimism biases my hopes. Not sure what forecast is wishful thinking though? The intro is not a prediction, it’s a potential scenario. And I actually don’t wish that! Too much war in there.
On Angola, it’s a country I haven’t dived deeply into yet so I might get it wrong. But its exposure to oil is objectively high, given the cost of its extraction and the share of gov income it represents. Do you really think the country would remain unscathed with a drop in oil demand?
More importantly, I am not arguing that Angola is very exposed mainly because of its existing internal strife. But by the oil exposure.
I’m a mega supporter of nuclear, but it takes a long time to be built. Regardless, whether it’s through solar or nuclear, the reaction to oil doesn’t change.
Excellent article - @Tomas Pueyo is among the limited (but growing) number of commentators who really get that the end of the fossil fuel era is now economically inevitable, and this is a valuable geopolitical projection extrapolating from that.
As an environmental consultant dealing with wetlands and forestry for many decades, I am worried about the negative environmental effects of wind power, especially from offshore windfarms.
Not all green technologies are benign, and the devestating impacts on wildlife from wind power are not insignificant.
This is 2035 — not 2050. We are probably already at peak oil and the decline of fossil fuels will decrease nonlinearly due to compounding improvements in solar and batteries. The extent that some countries can escape this through diversification (UAE) is a relevant and interesting question.
I really value your opinion, as I've mentioned multiple times, but, in this case, I think you're the one doing a lot of wishful thinking, especially in your 2050 geopolitical predictions. And I'm really failing to understand your prediction for Angola. First of all, ethnic conflict in Angola is practically non-existent since the end of the civil war. Also, according to v-dem and eiu, it's currently an hybrid regime, not an authoritarian state (like your graph says). Second, its internal skirmishes are miniscule when compared to Nigeria and Chad (both in number of casualties and the fact that they don't have the Islamic State on their doorstep). Also, the conflict is exclusive to the exclave of Cabinda, which happens to have all the oil reserves, and that's the big reason there's a fight. If the value of oil is gone, Cabinda has even less reason for fighting.
Angola has a lot of problems and, if the value of oil really falls like you say, Luanda might lose its status as one of the richest and most developped cities in sub-saharan Africa, but I don't see the country plummeting into a Civil War (again); and also don't see them becoming a "strong democracy", out of nowhere. If things go well, they'll simply continued slowly democratizing, like they've had in the last 20 years.
Thank you Pedro.
I am indeed quite hopeful, and my optimism biases my hopes. Not sure what forecast is wishful thinking though? The intro is not a prediction, it’s a potential scenario. And I actually don’t wish that! Too much war in there.
On Angola, it’s a country I haven’t dived deeply into yet so I might get it wrong. But its exposure to oil is objectively high, given the cost of its extraction and the share of gov income it represents. Do you really think the country would remain unscathed with a drop in oil demand?
More importantly, I am not arguing that Angola is very exposed mainly because of its existing internal strife. But by the oil exposure.
Where’s the role of nuclear power in this analysis?
I’m a mega supporter of nuclear, but it takes a long time to be built. Regardless, whether it’s through solar or nuclear, the reaction to oil doesn’t change.
Excellent article - @Tomas Pueyo is among the limited (but growing) number of commentators who really get that the end of the fossil fuel era is now economically inevitable, and this is a valuable geopolitical projection extrapolating from that.
it’s been awhile since I heard the words ‘Peak Oil’ on the internet.
I guess we can slot this in now that ‘Climate Change’ is no longer an existential threat?
I think 'peak demand' is more appropriate.
Yes, peak not as in supply peak but demand peak
As an environmental consultant dealing with wetlands and forestry for many decades, I am worried about the negative environmental effects of wind power, especially from offshore windfarms.
Not all green technologies are benign, and the devestating impacts on wildlife from wind power are not insignificant.