Here are some additional ideas that I think are also relevant:
1) Morocco's claim to these territories is even weaker than Tomas pointed out. Of those 700 years under muslim rule, for hundreds of years, these territories were under the control of the muslim kingdoms rooted in the Iberian Peninsula, not in Morocco itself.
2) Even though close to 50% of the inhabitants of Ceuta and Melilla descend from Morocco, they overwhelmingly want to remain Spanish and European citizens (+90%).
3) The reason for the above lies in the fact that Morocco is an authoritarian dictatorship and a police state. Who would want to be part of a country like that?
4) A final thought. Because of the need for its immigration control, Spain treats Morocco with exquisite diplomacy and patience. What I'm not sure Moroccan politicians realize is that if they ever try to replicate the Green March and occupy Ceuta and Melilla using its population, Spain will no longer have any incentive to apply this smooth policy. On the contrary, it will have all the incentives for a crushing military action.
Even though this last point is a tough one, I believe it is time that the Spanish government starts expressing itself clearly in this regard.
Morocco is doing what Morocco does, and what one would expect it to do. The problem here is that Spain is not acting like Spain. Why? Because it has a failed government—a government that no longer defends the interests of the nation, and one that has changed Spain’s foreign policy toward Morocco.
Look at the case of Western Sahara. It shows how, because of an intensely personal matter involving the prime minister, a country’s foreign policy can change.
The background to the Western Sahara case is that Morocco infected Prime Minister Sánchez’s mobile phone with Israeli spyware called Pegasus. Since then, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has been a hostage to the King of Morocco.
This is what should be analyzed.
And if you want another idea, you could try analyzing, from the first principles of geohistory, what has been happening in Spain during the last two terms of government. I think you could find the basis for a very interesting series of articles here.
Thank you Tomas, plenty of interesting information. Lot‘s if things that are important and good to know, like the control of the Strait that Ceuta gives to Spain. Curiously though, three words are completely missing from the articleY They are usually abbreviated: C.I.A.
Yeah I didn't find too much US involvement. Both countries are US allies, the current Spanish government is less aligned, but that's it. The CIA had an interesting role as a way to get info from things that happened in the past (eg, 1975), but I couldn't find anything else. Did I miss something?
This is not the first time Morocco used this tactics to put pressure on Spain.
In 2021 around 12000 migrants entered Ceuta. This was triggered by a diplomatic dispute between Morocco and Spain over the hospitalization of Sahrawi leader Brahim Ghali in Spain.
in 2005 there was another border assault, which led to between 13 and 18 people dead.
Given this information, the latest breach might have been concidental but I find it rather unlikely. It is more likely that this is a message from Morocco. Spain's sympathy for self-determination of the Western Sahara might be a factor.
1) 5000 remaining migrants (the government official numbers) is by far much less than reality that is for sure close to the double
2) Things are now exactly were Morocco would like them to be: Ceuta converted in the Spanish Lampedusa where no body wants to leave. All current Spanish inhabitants will progressively leave in the long term. No economic activities, nor investments, nor jobs will develop. Only a vulnerable flanc for Spain with progressively less interest to be defended. And this is the way for Morocco to get the city in the long term without having to engage in a conventional war.
3) The assumption that Morocco Secret Services was not behind this is naive. They were, even the development of the facts overcome their expectations and in a certain way, they loosed control
4) Finally the proof Morocco is satisfied with the current collapse of Ceuta they have provoked: if it was not intentional, they were already collaborating with Spanish administration with mixed teams of police (and other authorities) moved to Ceuta to help managing the return of the about 10000 remaining migrants in few weeks. A mixed team of Spanish-Morocco police would enormously facilitate and speed up the identification and returning process. They will not do this. They want the problem to become chronic.
Ceuta is in Africa and therefore I think Spain / Europe should not rule that territory. However, if the majority of the people who live there want to remain Spanish then that's the end of the question when it comes to the sovereignty.
Having said that, though, I think we're missing the point. With such an uneven planet, poor Africans will keep trying to move to rich Europe. And Spain just happens to be next to Africa. So this type of "invasion" will keep happening, by land or sea. Is the EU doing anything to help develop Africa?
Why is the fact that Ceuta is in Africa mean that Spain should not rule the territory?
(independently from the fact that the vast majority of Ceutans want to remain Spanish. The Muslim Ceutans (a large minority), don't vote for a pro-Moroccan party)
Really interesting take! I've heard people (mostly anti-zionists, sometimes anti-semites) claim that there was Israeli involvement. I don't really understand where they claim came from. Did you find anything about that in your research?
The reason that is claimed is because Morocco recognized Israel in the Abraham Accords in 2020. The Rapprochement suggests Morocco, Israel, and the US might be aligned now. Meanwhile, the current Spanish PM has radicalized Spain against Israel, in a ver pro-Palestinian posture. Hence why people claim Israel might be supporting Morocco against Spain.
I think that's pretty dumb. Israel has very little to win doing that, and is very busy with its own neighbors to try to inject itself so far away, supporting a Muslim country against a non-Muslim one
I am more interested if anyting was surfaced regarding the US $40 million funding bill for Morocco that passed just a few weeks before the incident. In that bill, by the way, in those discussions, some Republicans declared that Cueta is rightfully part of Morocco. Curious if this was part of the research as well.
US and Israel have been traditional allies of Morocco. Because of Spain's frontal denunciation of the Gaza genocide, the US and Israel have been maneuvering in different ways to weaken the Spanish left-wing government. Hence the suspicions of them being behind this whole situation.
Better check your facts, Tomas. Morocco and Israel have had a covert military and intelligence partnership for over 60 years. True, it only surfaced after the 2020 Abraham Accords. But it got started with Operation Yachin in 1961...
The Mossad established a station in Morocco as early as 1963.
Among many other things, Israelis have helped Morocco since 1980 to fortify the defensive wall in former Spanish Western Sahara. We are speaking of the second-largest in the world.
Let me make sure I understand. You're saying Morocco and Israel are allies because, among other things, they let the Israeli Mossad operate in Morocco to *evacuate* Jews?
Why were they evacuating them?
What were they escaping?
Your other fact is that some Israelis experts helped in some military support to Morocco?
Yes, there was a big wave of immigration to Israel in the 60s from all of North Africa, not only from Morocco. The reasons are complex.
But despite that, Morocco and Israel have held a decades-long, intense military and intelligence collaboration second only to the one Morocco has with the US. This is probably the type of relationship that matters the most to an autocrat like Mohammed VI.
Morocco's policy regarding Palestine or the Jewish population that you mention is mostly just a facade for internal consumption. A cheap way to keep people happy. More than anything, it is demagogy. The latest on this populist front is football. Make sure to read about it.
The reason is not complex at all. Muslims hate that Jews have a state on previously-Muslim land, and the following antisemitism across the Muslim world meant few Jews had to leave. They all moved to Israel. Saying that Israel and Morocco are Allie’s in that world is stretching the evidence quite a lot. A much better take would be that Morocco doesn’t hate Jsrael as much as other Muslim countries because they’re very far away.
Here are some additional ideas that I think are also relevant:
1) Morocco's claim to these territories is even weaker than Tomas pointed out. Of those 700 years under muslim rule, for hundreds of years, these territories were under the control of the muslim kingdoms rooted in the Iberian Peninsula, not in Morocco itself.
2) Even though close to 50% of the inhabitants of Ceuta and Melilla descend from Morocco, they overwhelmingly want to remain Spanish and European citizens (+90%).
3) The reason for the above lies in the fact that Morocco is an authoritarian dictatorship and a police state. Who would want to be part of a country like that?
4) A final thought. Because of the need for its immigration control, Spain treats Morocco with exquisite diplomacy and patience. What I'm not sure Moroccan politicians realize is that if they ever try to replicate the Green March and occupy Ceuta and Melilla using its population, Spain will no longer have any incentive to apply this smooth policy. On the contrary, it will have all the incentives for a crushing military action.
Even though this last point is a tough one, I believe it is time that the Spanish government starts expressing itself clearly in this regard.
once these movements of people were called invasions and definitely caused a war
22.5% of SPANISH men aged 15-25 are neither studying nor working. They just make more not doing it than Moroccans, I guess.
Morocco is doing what Morocco does, and what one would expect it to do. The problem here is that Spain is not acting like Spain. Why? Because it has a failed government—a government that no longer defends the interests of the nation, and one that has changed Spain’s foreign policy toward Morocco.
Look at the case of Western Sahara. It shows how, because of an intensely personal matter involving the prime minister, a country’s foreign policy can change.
The background to the Western Sahara case is that Morocco infected Prime Minister Sánchez’s mobile phone with Israeli spyware called Pegasus. Since then, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez has been a hostage to the King of Morocco.
This is what should be analyzed.
And if you want another idea, you could try analyzing, from the first principles of geohistory, what has been happening in Spain during the last two terms of government. I think you could find the basis for a very interesting series of articles here.
Thank you Tomas, plenty of interesting information. Lot‘s if things that are important and good to know, like the control of the Strait that Ceuta gives to Spain. Curiously though, three words are completely missing from the articleY They are usually abbreviated: C.I.A.
Thanks!
Yeah I didn't find too much US involvement. Both countries are US allies, the current Spanish government is less aligned, but that's it. The CIA had an interesting role as a way to get info from things that happened in the past (eg, 1975), but I couldn't find anything else. Did I miss something?
This is not the first time Morocco used this tactics to put pressure on Spain.
In 2021 around 12000 migrants entered Ceuta. This was triggered by a diplomatic dispute between Morocco and Spain over the hospitalization of Sahrawi leader Brahim Ghali in Spain.
in 2005 there was another border assault, which led to between 13 and 18 people dead.
Given this information, the latest breach might have been concidental but I find it rather unlikely. It is more likely that this is a message from Morocco. Spain's sympathy for self-determination of the Western Sahara might be a factor.
Hi Tomás, some other points we should consider:
1) 5000 remaining migrants (the government official numbers) is by far much less than reality that is for sure close to the double
2) Things are now exactly were Morocco would like them to be: Ceuta converted in the Spanish Lampedusa where no body wants to leave. All current Spanish inhabitants will progressively leave in the long term. No economic activities, nor investments, nor jobs will develop. Only a vulnerable flanc for Spain with progressively less interest to be defended. And this is the way for Morocco to get the city in the long term without having to engage in a conventional war.
3) The assumption that Morocco Secret Services was not behind this is naive. They were, even the development of the facts overcome their expectations and in a certain way, they loosed control
4) Finally the proof Morocco is satisfied with the current collapse of Ceuta they have provoked: if it was not intentional, they were already collaborating with Spanish administration with mixed teams of police (and other authorities) moved to Ceuta to help managing the return of the about 10000 remaining migrants in few weeks. A mixed team of Spanish-Morocco police would enormously facilitate and speed up the identification and returning process. They will not do this. They want the problem to become chronic.
Ceuta is in Africa and therefore I think Spain / Europe should not rule that territory. However, if the majority of the people who live there want to remain Spanish then that's the end of the question when it comes to the sovereignty.
Having said that, though, I think we're missing the point. With such an uneven planet, poor Africans will keep trying to move to rich Europe. And Spain just happens to be next to Africa. So this type of "invasion" will keep happening, by land or sea. Is the EU doing anything to help develop Africa?
Can you expand on that logic?
Why is the fact that Ceuta is in Africa mean that Spain should not rule the territory?
(independently from the fact that the vast majority of Ceutans want to remain Spanish. The Muslim Ceutans (a large minority), don't vote for a pro-Moroccan party)
https://seguridadinternacional.es/resi/html/representacion-politica-e-identidad-local-en-ceuta-1975-2023/
Developing Africa is one way. Africa is 20 times more populated than Spain though. Not viable.
Really interesting take! I've heard people (mostly anti-zionists, sometimes anti-semites) claim that there was Israeli involvement. I don't really understand where they claim came from. Did you find anything about that in your research?
The reason that is claimed is because Morocco recognized Israel in the Abraham Accords in 2020. The Rapprochement suggests Morocco, Israel, and the US might be aligned now. Meanwhile, the current Spanish PM has radicalized Spain against Israel, in a ver pro-Palestinian posture. Hence why people claim Israel might be supporting Morocco against Spain.
I think that's pretty dumb. Israel has very little to win doing that, and is very busy with its own neighbors to try to inject itself so far away, supporting a Muslim country against a non-Muslim one
I am more interested if anyting was surfaced regarding the US $40 million funding bill for Morocco that passed just a few weeks before the incident. In that bill, by the way, in those discussions, some Republicans declared that Cueta is rightfully part of Morocco. Curious if this was part of the research as well.
I think US politicians are pissed at Spain's PM for being pretty antagonistic, and are trying to make that antagonism expensive. That's it.
US and Israel have been traditional allies of Morocco. Because of Spain's frontal denunciation of the Gaza genocide, the US and Israel have been maneuvering in different ways to weaken the Spanish left-wing government. Hence the suspicions of them being behind this whole situation.
Morocco didn't even recognize Israel until 2020!
There used to be hundreds of thousands of Jews in Morocco before WW2, and now there are a few thousand only.
So no, Israel and Morocco are absolutely not allies.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moroccan_Jews
Better check your facts, Tomas. Morocco and Israel have had a covert military and intelligence partnership for over 60 years. True, it only surfaced after the 2020 Abraham Accords. But it got started with Operation Yachin in 1961...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Yachin
The Mossad established a station in Morocco as early as 1963.
Among many other things, Israelis have helped Morocco since 1980 to fortify the defensive wall in former Spanish Western Sahara. We are speaking of the second-largest in the world.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moroccan_Western_Sahara_wall
There is much more. So yes, they have a long-term strategic partnership
Let me make sure I understand. You're saying Morocco and Israel are allies because, among other things, they let the Israeli Mossad operate in Morocco to *evacuate* Jews?
Why were they evacuating them?
What were they escaping?
Your other fact is that some Israelis experts helped in some military support to Morocco?
Yes, there was a big wave of immigration to Israel in the 60s from all of North Africa, not only from Morocco. The reasons are complex.
But despite that, Morocco and Israel have held a decades-long, intense military and intelligence collaboration second only to the one Morocco has with the US. This is probably the type of relationship that matters the most to an autocrat like Mohammed VI.
Morocco's policy regarding Palestine or the Jewish population that you mention is mostly just a facade for internal consumption. A cheap way to keep people happy. More than anything, it is demagogy. The latest on this populist front is football. Make sure to read about it.
The reason is not complex at all. Muslims hate that Jews have a state on previously-Muslim land, and the following antisemitism across the Muslim world meant few Jews had to leave. They all moved to Israel. Saying that Israel and Morocco are Allie’s in that world is stretching the evidence quite a lot. A much better take would be that Morocco doesn’t hate Jsrael as much as other Muslim countries because they’re very far away.