“Russia’s games in the Middle East are done.” Well, for a little while, perhaps. But their interest in projecting southward isn’t new, and it isn’t over.
This is a really interesting piece, and certainly presents the most optimistic analysis I’ve seen. I’ve pretty much abandoned hope of things getting better. This region has broken the hearts of a lot of optimists (remember Arab Spring?). Fortunately, hope is pretty resilient.
Russia may desire to be a Great Power and to project power south, but let's face it, while foreign forces on its borders could be an existential threat, nothing in the ME really is. And to project power, you have to have, well, power. Both Russia and Iran have much more pressing and closer problems/threats to deal with right now.
I expect Turkey to desire to become a regional hegemon. Would need the tacit cooperation of Israel, which may be forthcoming.
Tomas, another amazing piece of in-depth journalism. The Syrian army fell apart as quickly as the Afghan army with a rapidity surprising everyone. Syria will be a country in name only. HTS occupies only West and NW Syria. The Kurds in the North and Northwest will likely seek to expand their autonomy and of course will face Turkish opposition. Maybe similar to the breakup of Yugoslavia after disappeared from the scene
"Russia, allied with Iran because they both hate the US"
This isn't the kind of nuance I've come to expect from your writing. I know you don't mean it this simplistically, but this aligns with propaganda that Americans are usually fed. They don't need encouragement believing "they hate us for our freedom."
No, that "they hate us for our freedoms" line was silly, but Putin and the theocrats in Iran certainly would like to weaken American power. They both have more pressing issues closer to home, though, in both cases due to terribly poor geopolitical strategy and overreaching (given their strength).
What about natural resources? They could be a factor in future.
I asked ChaGPT:-
"Syria is endowed with several natural resources, including:
Oil and Natural Gas: Syria has significant oil reserves, though production has declined in recent years due to ongoing conflicts. It also has natural gas reserves, primarily located in the northeast.
Phosphates: Syria is one of the world's largest producers of phosphates, which are used in fertilizers.
Agricultural Land: Syria has fertile agricultural land, particularly in the Euphrates River basin. Crops grown include wheat, barley, cotton, and vegetables.
Minerals: Apart from phosphates, Syria has other minerals such as limestone, gypsum, salt, and some metals.
Water Resources: The Euphrates River and other smaller rivers provide essential water resources, though they are increasingly under pressure due to dam construction upstream, especially by Turkey.
Timber and Forests: Syria has some forested areas, though deforestation has been a concern in recent years."
Not sure how Tartus provides access to the Back Sea. It’s on the Med’ Sea.
However, it is important to Russia. It seems unlikely that Russia will be able to impose a claim on the port by force. In which case they will try to negotiate control. I guess that will cost quite a lot of gold on a regular basis.
But the problem is not so much that it’s a valuable seaport, but that the routes to supply it from the land-side will be at the mercy of the new government.
It's the other way around. Russia's only warm-water port is in the Black Sea, and that is blocked by the Bosphorus (Turkey). Tartus was the only base that allowed protection in a warm-water port and freedom of movement.
A port on its own does nothing except provide a harbour. If you want to supply ships with oil, food, weapons, people etc, then you have to have a supply route from the land-side. If you want the port to receive goods for trade, then it has to have a safe route to the recipient.
My point is that Putin will need to provide funds in the form of gold if he wants to keep a route open.
Very interesting. One element that’s missing is the role of water resources (where Turkish dam construction upstream has reduced available flows to a significant extent. But Syria has been too weak to do as anything about it. Also, hardships and internal displacements due to environmental degradation in parts of the country played a role in the initial uprising against Assad. This will continue to be a factor.
Including Jordan's understated influence as a buffer and stabiliser would be useful. Also including Israel in the major powers map (even if it's currently a proxy for the US countering Iranian regional influence).
A similar geopolitical post for Sudan's civil war and its backers would also be very instructive, including UAE influences.
Superb summary, as usual. The Israeli destruction of arms and chemical labs is an excellent example of swift, strategic military action. Any new Syrian government will have its economic hands full with ordinary infrastructure. No need for military/army/navy expenditures as no likely external invaders except Turkey are likely to act soon, and the Turks are primarily concerned with the Kurds. The main problem will very likely be conflict between the several armed groups limiting happy return of Syrians in Europe and Turkey. The largest unknown is the regional and long-term goals of HTA. Once a fundamentalist,,,,,,,
Very comprehensive yet understandable. Thanks and here’s hope the Syrian people can begin to rebuild their lives.
I don't have much hope on HTS, but let's see!
“Russia’s games in the Middle East are done.” Well, for a little while, perhaps. But their interest in projecting southward isn’t new, and it isn’t over.
This is a really interesting piece, and certainly presents the most optimistic analysis I’ve seen. I’ve pretty much abandoned hope of things getting better. This region has broken the hearts of a lot of optimists (remember Arab Spring?). Fortunately, hope is pretty resilient.
Yes!
But I wouldn't bet on HTS being an amazing and modern political group
Russia may desire to be a Great Power and to project power south, but let's face it, while foreign forces on its borders could be an existential threat, nothing in the ME really is. And to project power, you have to have, well, power. Both Russia and Iran have much more pressing and closer problems/threats to deal with right now.
I expect Turkey to desire to become a regional hegemon. Would need the tacit cooperation of Israel, which may be forthcoming.
Tomas, another amazing piece of in-depth journalism. The Syrian army fell apart as quickly as the Afghan army with a rapidity surprising everyone. Syria will be a country in name only. HTS occupies only West and NW Syria. The Kurds in the North and Northwest will likely seek to expand their autonomy and of course will face Turkish opposition. Maybe similar to the breakup of Yugoslavia after disappeared from the scene
Indeed, very similar!
Similar to Libya now. Or Iraq now. Ideally better off than Somalia now. Or yes, the former Yugoslavia.
"Russia, allied with Iran because they both hate the US"
This isn't the kind of nuance I've come to expect from your writing. I know you don't mean it this simplistically, but this aligns with propaganda that Americans are usually fed. They don't need encouragement believing "they hate us for our freedom."
Hahaha you're right that it was a shorthand. This article had to be timely and I took some shortcuts. Thanks for your understanding!
No, that "they hate us for our freedoms" line was silly, but Putin and the theocrats in Iran certainly would like to weaken American power. They both have more pressing issues closer to home, though, in both cases due to terribly poor geopolitical strategy and overreaching (given their strength).
What do you mean by poor geopolitical strategy? I think they've done pretty well for the hands they've been dealt.
What about natural resources? They could be a factor in future.
I asked ChaGPT:-
"Syria is endowed with several natural resources, including:
Oil and Natural Gas: Syria has significant oil reserves, though production has declined in recent years due to ongoing conflicts. It also has natural gas reserves, primarily located in the northeast.
Phosphates: Syria is one of the world's largest producers of phosphates, which are used in fertilizers.
Agricultural Land: Syria has fertile agricultural land, particularly in the Euphrates River basin. Crops grown include wheat, barley, cotton, and vegetables.
Minerals: Apart from phosphates, Syria has other minerals such as limestone, gypsum, salt, and some metals.
Water Resources: The Euphrates River and other smaller rivers provide essential water resources, though they are increasingly under pressure due to dam construction upstream, especially by Turkey.
Timber and Forests: Syria has some forested areas, though deforestation has been a concern in recent years."
Will discuss in the premium article!
The key to it all is Tartus. If the Russians lose that then they have no access out of the Black Sea without Turkey's say-so.
Not sure how Tartus provides access to the Back Sea. It’s on the Med’ Sea.
However, it is important to Russia. It seems unlikely that Russia will be able to impose a claim on the port by force. In which case they will try to negotiate control. I guess that will cost quite a lot of gold on a regular basis.
But the problem is not so much that it’s a valuable seaport, but that the routes to supply it from the land-side will be at the mercy of the new government.
It's the other way around. Russia's only warm-water port is in the Black Sea, and that is blocked by the Bosphorus (Turkey). Tartus was the only base that allowed protection in a warm-water port and freedom of movement.
Ports are much better supplied through the sea.
That depends on your viewpoint.
A port on its own does nothing except provide a harbour. If you want to supply ships with oil, food, weapons, people etc, then you have to have a supply route from the land-side. If you want the port to receive goods for trade, then it has to have a safe route to the recipient.
My point is that Putin will need to provide funds in the form of gold if he wants to keep a route open.
Very interesting. One element that’s missing is the role of water resources (where Turkish dam construction upstream has reduced available flows to a significant extent. But Syria has been too weak to do as anything about it. Also, hardships and internal displacements due to environmental degradation in parts of the country played a role in the initial uprising against Assad. This will continue to be a factor.
Including Jordan's understated influence as a buffer and stabiliser would be useful. Also including Israel in the major powers map (even if it's currently a proxy for the US countering Iranian regional influence).
A similar geopolitical post for Sudan's civil war and its backers would also be very instructive, including UAE influences.
Another great piece! Cried out for maps and, as Pueyo says, most of what we see harsher isn’t very illuminating…
rad, thanks. rly appreciate the succinct but detailed explanation. !
Thank you Tomas for the timely, in depth analysis about a very complicated situation.
Superb summary, as usual. The Israeli destruction of arms and chemical labs is an excellent example of swift, strategic military action. Any new Syrian government will have its economic hands full with ordinary infrastructure. No need for military/army/navy expenditures as no likely external invaders except Turkey are likely to act soon, and the Turks are primarily concerned with the Kurds. The main problem will very likely be conflict between the several armed groups limiting happy return of Syrians in Europe and Turkey. The largest unknown is the regional and long-term goals of HTA. Once a fundamentalist,,,,,,,
That’s the big fear
“Finally, the US-supported militia in the southeastern border was basically in the desert. Not much power there.”
Could not help but think of Dune when reading this line.
“… here we need desert power. Desert Power. Remember that.” - Duke Leto Atreides
Although in this case, that desert power lies in Kurdistan!
Kurdistan, and *not* sand worms. Got it.
Very helpful, and timely! Just, thank you Thomas
Curious if you see any China influence on this chessboard? Thanks for the article.
I don’t know of any, and if there are, I think they’d be a bit tenuous
A very complicated situation. Thanks for clarifying it. We will have to wait what happens next.