Why isn’t Ukraine a country of two hundred million people? Why didn’t it conquer Russia, Germany, or Constantinople? The question sounds preposterous until you understand the unbelievable luck Ukraine has—all ultimately wasted by one single but crucial detail.
Ukraine has been a melting point of numerous civilisation (although a much more violent one). When did independent Ukrainian identity came about? Is it a nation state or a state nation? When did it start diverging from Russian identity (I have read that Kiev was a major cultural site even in Tsarist Russia)?
The question is unfortunately too political. The truth is most national feelings emerge during the 19th century as a story that states come up with to centralize the power. At that time Ukraine was already part of Russia, so it already saw the effect of the propaganda from Moscow.
In reality most nation-states can be seen as just a narrative, so whichever people mostly believe today can be considered the true one.
Just a quick note that while it's true that Ukraine seems to be an extreme case, invasion from the Steppes' warriors that destroyed empires/civilisations was the norm rather than the exception in Asia. See Braudel's hypothesis that had India and China been better protected from such invasion, like Western Europe, they may well have had their Renaissance before us.
awesome!!! Now tell us how to stop the destruction of this wonderful country. Tomas, this is a wonderful effort on your part. You helped stop/manage the pandemic. Please focus some of your enormous talent on this horrible war. Thanks for all you do
My father’s family is from this region & we are (I’m given to understand) ethnically Carpatho-Rusyn. Some parts of the family came to the US at different times, so some of us say we’re Slovak, others Ukrainian.
This was an enjoyable post. It illuminates the greater power of a wonderfully constructed book. "Prisoners of Geography" by Tim Marshall provides the Ukraine lesson and many others in a great book about the magic and importance of geography.
It is funny to me as I'm in a history bookclub. Sometimes I marvel at the points different members end up focusing on with the same book. I think we read it the month before last so still fresh! I thought the book very good but didn't care for the speculative predictions.
I am glad to have stumbled upon your Substack and will look at some of your backlog. I write about varied topics but often share a non-fiction history book review once a month after our book club meets. I would share my review of the book if you are interested.
Amazing article, knew all the people and cultures excpet the first one, Typilla... Nice to give (additional) logical structure and context to these facts.
I noticed in the map about chernozem distribution that it is almost absent from cradles of civilizations, like India, China and Fertile Crescent. Interesting.
Very counter intuitive piece Tomas. Too much of a good thing is a bad thing.
I think of this in respect to my country, Nigeria, which has a lot of natural resources but only resulted in over dependency and government corruption.
When you think your most important resource is a liquid underground you tend to ignore the human resource above ground. The people just become obstacles in your way.
Nigeria is so complex. The resource curse is one factor. The Niger is another. The Sahel vs jungle, with the corresponding Christian vs Muslim split, the dense coast, with the resulting slavery and ethnic differences… I’ll tackle it one day.
On the other hand it is very simple. Nigeria was actually on a positive course after British independence.
But the colonialist mindset of taking power by force was too ingrained in many people, hence coup after coup by soldiers largely trained by British military.
Taking power by violence always seems like cheating to one ethnic group and so it repeats itself.
Couple that with the discovery of the economic importance of oil, saw Nigeria shift from a largely agriculture based economy to one centered on extracting oil from the ground.
Money attracts the greediest people to power. And why improve the lives of the citizens when you just want the resource under their feet?
Hence the places with the most oil are some of the poorest.
I'd love to see how you tackle it. Tag me on Notes if have any questions.
1. Not EU. The EU is not a prerequisite for prosperity, as Norway & Switzerland attest. It may kickstart the economy in a way, but the cost would be great.
I have some experience of eastern Germany, as well as friends in Poland, Czechia & Croatia. East Germans could exchange only DM 2000 of their savings. Many businesses were taken over by Western asset strippers. Most that survived were taken over by Western investors. At the Sächsische Zeitung in Dresden, for example, founded 77 years ago, all middle & higher management are Wessies (West Germans) & the newspaper is now owned by Gruner + Jahr of Hamburg. In Poland, the smallholder seemed to thrive under four decades of attempted collectivisation, but was swept away by EU regulation.
Even at the height of war, Rheinmetall, BAE Systems, & surely many others, are 'investing' in Ukraine not out of moral principles, but principally to extract a profit to Düsseldorff & London.
The immediate result of EU accession is the destruction of much local business & the breakup of many families after the bread-winner is forced to find work in the West. The longterm effect is a an economic colonisation by Western business and shareholders. Ukraine doesn't need this, because of its black earth & other natural resources, and its engineering & entrepreneurial prowess.
5. Marriage like Islam. To reach a population of 200 million, Ukraine needs a lot of babies. Polygamy helps. I hypothesise a correlation between societies that are polygamous & societies whose young men have traditionally fought and died. Pokots have told me, for example, that God in his goodness creates four times as many girl-babies as boy-babies. In fact, in Kenya as a whole, God (or at least genetics) creates 2% more boys than girls, probably for the same reason – that many young men have, until recently, died in battle.
As a side note, one of the drivers prolonging the Russo-Ukrainian war may be that Western & Russian policy-makers, usually older men, are attracted by the increasing number of pretty young Ukrainian widows. Most of the foreigners now in Ukraine are, I suppose, also men.
Interesting history! So I suppose the point is Ukraine has almost always been feeding other people's empires, and never had the chance to develop its own. But didn't those empires build infrastructure in Ukraine? Or was it always a more extractive relationship?
Nomadic tribes didn't focus on agriculture, and all the public works that come with it. Were they empires insofar as "states that can reallocate resources for their long-term success"? Unclear.
Coastal civilizations def invested more, as we saw with Greeks. But on coastal infrastructure.
Arguably, Kievan Rus' was probably a better type of standard state, and I assume it would have invested more—but it was probably too early in history for it to seriously invest? So would Poland-Lithuania and Russia. But I'm not sure how much these had the habit of investing in their occupied areas. Ukraine definitely saw investments during the Soviet time, but it also suffered some assaults
They all did invest somehow. For example, since the goal of most of these was agriculture and trade, they invested in securing the region and the trade routes.
The goal is not to make a nationalistic article about Ukraine, but rather explain its trajectory based on the geography. The fact that Cucuteni-trypilla’s geographic extent includes Ukraine doesn’t mean it is Ukraine, or an exclusive part of its heritage right?
In what sense do you feel the article steers away from that?
I grew up in a city where there's a Cucuteni Culture museum in the centre of the city. And we also learned A LOT about the cucuteni culture at school.
Though I must congratulate you because I've learned more about the importance of this culture from your article than the museum and the school combined. 🤣
Thanks for the Ukraine history lesson
A pleasure!
Thanks Tomas for another interesting article!
Ukraine has been a melting point of numerous civilisation (although a much more violent one). When did independent Ukrainian identity came about? Is it a nation state or a state nation? When did it start diverging from Russian identity (I have read that Kiev was a major cultural site even in Tsarist Russia)?
The question is unfortunately too political. The truth is most national feelings emerge during the 19th century as a story that states come up with to centralize the power. At that time Ukraine was already part of Russia, so it already saw the effect of the propaganda from Moscow.
In reality most nation-states can be seen as just a narrative, so whichever people mostly believe today can be considered the true one.
Very cool Tomás.
Just a quick note that while it's true that Ukraine seems to be an extreme case, invasion from the Steppes' warriors that destroyed empires/civilisations was the norm rather than the exception in Asia. See Braudel's hypothesis that had India and China been better protected from such invasion, like Western Europe, they may well have had their Renaissance before us.
Of course it was the norm!
I’d argue though that both were better defended though, and in the case of China, it didn’t have enough of a threat
Another fantastic article. Love how you pose a question then answer it with great info and visuals.
How do I create interest?
Read my next article for an answer.
awesome!!! Now tell us how to stop the destruction of this wonderful country. Tomas, this is a wonderful effort on your part. You helped stop/manage the pandemic. Please focus some of your enormous talent on this horrible war. Thanks for all you do
So proud you are a Cardinal!!
Vic
I mean I don’t think I can influence NATO belonging. But maybe if the US sees the potential of Ukraine it’s more willing to fight for it?
Thank you so much for this history lesson!
My father’s family is from this region & we are (I’m given to understand) ethnically Carpatho-Rusyn. Some parts of the family came to the US at different times, so some of us say we’re Slovak, others Ukrainian.
Great lead into the history, learnt a lot!
This was an enjoyable post. It illuminates the greater power of a wonderfully constructed book. "Prisoners of Geography" by Tim Marshall provides the Ukraine lesson and many others in a great book about the magic and importance of geography.
Interesting. I read the book but didn’t recall this lesson
It is funny to me as I'm in a history bookclub. Sometimes I marvel at the points different members end up focusing on with the same book. I think we read it the month before last so still fresh! I thought the book very good but didn't care for the speculative predictions.
Maybe I should Re-read it. In any case thanks for sharing!
I am glad to have stumbled upon your Substack and will look at some of your backlog. I write about varied topics but often share a non-fiction history book review once a month after our book club meets. I would share my review of the book if you are interested.
But why isn't the same true for Germany? It looks like the same conditions apply
https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/ukraine-everything-else-you-wanted
Amazing article, knew all the people and cultures excpet the first one, Typilla... Nice to give (additional) logical structure and context to these facts.
I noticed in the map about chernozem distribution that it is almost absent from cradles of civilizations, like India, China and Fertile Crescent. Interesting.
They didn’t need it because they were on rivers. The fertility didn’t come from chernozem, but from River silt.
Very counter intuitive piece Tomas. Too much of a good thing is a bad thing.
I think of this in respect to my country, Nigeria, which has a lot of natural resources but only resulted in over dependency and government corruption.
When you think your most important resource is a liquid underground you tend to ignore the human resource above ground. The people just become obstacles in your way.
Nigeria is so complex. The resource curse is one factor. The Niger is another. The Sahel vs jungle, with the corresponding Christian vs Muslim split, the dense coast, with the resulting slavery and ethnic differences… I’ll tackle it one day.
On the other hand it is very simple. Nigeria was actually on a positive course after British independence.
But the colonialist mindset of taking power by force was too ingrained in many people, hence coup after coup by soldiers largely trained by British military.
Taking power by violence always seems like cheating to one ethnic group and so it repeats itself.
Couple that with the discovery of the economic importance of oil, saw Nigeria shift from a largely agriculture based economy to one centered on extracting oil from the ground.
Money attracts the greediest people to power. And why improve the lives of the citizens when you just want the resource under their feet?
Hence the places with the most oil are some of the poorest.
I'd love to see how you tackle it. Tag me on Notes if have any questions.
Have a wonderful day Tomas ✨
Ideal post-war Ukraine
1. Nato not EU
2. Defence like Israel
3. Citizenship like Switzerland
4. Land ownership like Belarus
5. Marriage like Islam.
Why not in the EU?
Why marriage like Islam?
1. Not EU. The EU is not a prerequisite for prosperity, as Norway & Switzerland attest. It may kickstart the economy in a way, but the cost would be great.
I have some experience of eastern Germany, as well as friends in Poland, Czechia & Croatia. East Germans could exchange only DM 2000 of their savings. Many businesses were taken over by Western asset strippers. Most that survived were taken over by Western investors. At the Sächsische Zeitung in Dresden, for example, founded 77 years ago, all middle & higher management are Wessies (West Germans) & the newspaper is now owned by Gruner + Jahr of Hamburg. In Poland, the smallholder seemed to thrive under four decades of attempted collectivisation, but was swept away by EU regulation.
Even at the height of war, Rheinmetall, BAE Systems, & surely many others, are 'investing' in Ukraine not out of moral principles, but principally to extract a profit to Düsseldorff & London.
The immediate result of EU accession is the destruction of much local business & the breakup of many families after the bread-winner is forced to find work in the West. The longterm effect is a an economic colonisation by Western business and shareholders. Ukraine doesn't need this, because of its black earth & other natural resources, and its engineering & entrepreneurial prowess.
5. Marriage like Islam. To reach a population of 200 million, Ukraine needs a lot of babies. Polygamy helps. I hypothesise a correlation between societies that are polygamous & societies whose young men have traditionally fought and died. Pokots have told me, for example, that God in his goodness creates four times as many girl-babies as boy-babies. In fact, in Kenya as a whole, God (or at least genetics) creates 2% more boys than girls, probably for the same reason – that many young men have, until recently, died in battle.
As a side note, one of the drivers prolonging the Russo-Ukrainian war may be that Western & Russian policy-makers, usually older men, are attracted by the increasing number of pretty young Ukrainian widows. Most of the foreigners now in Ukraine are, I suppose, also men.
Thank you.
Great article. However, based on author directive, lot of squinting needed
Interesting history! So I suppose the point is Ukraine has almost always been feeding other people's empires, and never had the chance to develop its own. But didn't those empires build infrastructure in Ukraine? Or was it always a more extractive relationship?
Define "empires".
Nomadic tribes didn't focus on agriculture, and all the public works that come with it. Were they empires insofar as "states that can reallocate resources for their long-term success"? Unclear.
Coastal civilizations def invested more, as we saw with Greeks. But on coastal infrastructure.
Arguably, Kievan Rus' was probably a better type of standard state, and I assume it would have invested more—but it was probably too early in history for it to seriously invest? So would Poland-Lithuania and Russia. But I'm not sure how much these had the habit of investing in their occupied areas. Ukraine definitely saw investments during the Soviet time, but it also suffered some assaults
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor
They all did invest somehow. For example, since the goal of most of these was agriculture and trade, they invested in securing the region and the trade routes.
Eg:
Kievan Rus'
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_Gate,_Kyiv
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saint_Sophia_Cathedral,_Kyiv
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Square_of_Contracts_(Kyiv)
Eg:
Poland-Lithuania, eg in Lviv
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lviv_High_Castle
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._George%27s_Cathedral,_Lviv
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_Square_(Lviv)
Etc
Couldn't find irrigation though. And I don't know enough to precisely answer your Q. But if you learn about it, I'd love to know!
Great article though I must point out that the culture was Romanian-Ukrainian. I come from that region.
Which culture? Trypillia? Yes it corresponds in the map with Ukraine-Moldova-Romania today
Cucuteni-Tripilla, yes. You present it as a Ukrainian culture in your article. Would’ve been nice to be more accurate.
Hm it wasn’t my intention.
The goal is not to make a nationalistic article about Ukraine, but rather explain its trajectory based on the geography. The fact that Cucuteni-trypilla’s geographic extent includes Ukraine doesn’t mean it is Ukraine, or an exclusive part of its heritage right?
In what sense do you feel the article steers away from that?
I think that a paragraph explaining the culture and its geography would’ve been helpful. Cucuteni is a huge cultural heritage of Romania.
Note taken for a future Romanian article! I didn’t know the patriotic feeling on this topic was so strong. Thanks!
I grew up in a city where there's a Cucuteni Culture museum in the centre of the city. And we also learned A LOT about the cucuteni culture at school.
Though I must congratulate you because I've learned more about the importance of this culture from your article than the museum and the school combined. 🤣