Thanks, it's pretty exhaustive about, until now, the underestimated interaction among different factors. Many other external and regional actors (from the USA to the EU) had to realize and try to pay attention and give a contribution. It's also because of the underestimation of many factors and a lack of "common understanding" that Europe supported Iran and the rising confessionalism in the Middle East area
You refer to GAMAAN data, noting its impartiality, but a fairly convincing investigation proving the opposite can be found in the very same ChatGPT link you provide
Yes as I mentioned earlier in the article no source is going to be great for this. All will be biased. Then in that caption I don't say GAMAAN is impartial. I say literally that "ChatGPT couldn’t find direct funding from enemies of Iran like the US or Israel, although it did find some associations with organizations positioned against Iran’s government."
These are 2 statements, and both are true:
1. ChatGPT finds associations with orgs against Iran's regime
I think that Iran's territorial integrity is a non-issue, unlike Iraq or India, it has self-made borders dating a millennium, they aren't a foreign creation. Last big breakup was aftermath of Nader Shah, whose ephemeral conquests left Iran exhausted for a century, much like Napoleon & France.
There is a motive for power change that worked well in communist countries: elites understanding that they system is not working and they will improve living standards despite loosing power.
Hi Tomas, I know you have a strong connection to France, so wondering why this section seemed at odds with the strong French tradition of protesting:
“In democracies, power can be threatened if the demonstrations are huge and if they raise awareness on a previously unknown injustice. This can swing people’s vote, and throw the current parties out of power. But if the protest does not reveal new information, everybody already knows about a problem and protesting against it won’t change opinions much, so it won’t change who’s in power.”
The French are well known for intimidating politicians attempts at reform through demonstrations. Usually these demonstrations are large - which fulfils one of the 2 criteria above - but I would argue that they rarely bring light to a new injustice or concept (the retirement age and other entitlements are recurring topics). How do you reconcile this with your statement above? Is there something different about France than say, America?
Secondly, isn’t there something to be said for demonstrations to show people that you care about the topic and galvanize opposition? For example, given the choice to protest Trump’s comments and actions toward women in 2016, wasn’t it better for women who opposed Trump at that time to go out and demonstrate than to do nothing?
As you can see, I’m not quite willing to give up on the power of demonstrations in democracies yet!
The only possibility for regime overthrow is for the regular military is undertake a coup. They alone have the firepower to subjugate the IGRC and the Basij. I’m not holding my breath.
The fertility isn't just bad. It is falling hard and fast. Not that their aren't other countries in a similar situation, but as the article I linked describes, their collapsing economy is creating a freefall. Iran is in many ways a cultured westernized country and they won't have children if they can't afford it.
And of course, Israel has a fertility rate more than double theirs.
In the 80s the number of births in Iran were 20x that of Israel. This year they will be about 5x. If Iran is such a severe disadvantage with a working population of 35+ at 20x that of Israel how will they look when their population is 5x that of Israel.
If they continue to neglect the needs of their populace and focus on their military and building up their nuclear program the next 40 years may see a repeat of the same cycle. In 40 years from now the number of births in Israel may be almost equal to that of Iran, and the median age will be decades lower.
Thanks, it's pretty exhaustive about, until now, the underestimated interaction among different factors. Many other external and regional actors (from the USA to the EU) had to realize and try to pay attention and give a contribution. It's also because of the underestimation of many factors and a lack of "common understanding" that Europe supported Iran and the rising confessionalism in the Middle East area
You refer to GAMAAN data, noting its impartiality, but a fairly convincing investigation proving the opposite can be found in the very same ChatGPT link you provide
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Hi! Thanks for noting this.
Yes as I mentioned earlier in the article no source is going to be great for this. All will be biased. Then in that caption I don't say GAMAAN is impartial. I say literally that "ChatGPT couldn’t find direct funding from enemies of Iran like the US or Israel, although it did find some associations with organizations positioned against Iran’s government."
These are 2 statements, and both are true:
1. ChatGPT finds associations with orgs against Iran's regime
2. It found no conflict in its funding
I think that Iran's territorial integrity is a non-issue, unlike Iraq or India, it has self-made borders dating a millennium, they aren't a foreign creation. Last big breakup was aftermath of Nader Shah, whose ephemeral conquests left Iran exhausted for a century, much like Napoleon & France.
https://substack.com/@reeceashdown/note/c-132827529?r=5qrbeg&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
There is a motive for power change that worked well in communist countries: elites understanding that they system is not working and they will improve living standards despite loosing power.
Hi Tomas, I know you have a strong connection to France, so wondering why this section seemed at odds with the strong French tradition of protesting:
“In democracies, power can be threatened if the demonstrations are huge and if they raise awareness on a previously unknown injustice. This can swing people’s vote, and throw the current parties out of power. But if the protest does not reveal new information, everybody already knows about a problem and protesting against it won’t change opinions much, so it won’t change who’s in power.”
The French are well known for intimidating politicians attempts at reform through demonstrations. Usually these demonstrations are large - which fulfils one of the 2 criteria above - but I would argue that they rarely bring light to a new injustice or concept (the retirement age and other entitlements are recurring topics). How do you reconcile this with your statement above? Is there something different about France than say, America?
Secondly, isn’t there something to be said for demonstrations to show people that you care about the topic and galvanize opposition? For example, given the choice to protest Trump’s comments and actions toward women in 2016, wasn’t it better for women who opposed Trump at that time to go out and demonstrate than to do nothing?
As you can see, I’m not quite willing to give up on the power of demonstrations in democracies yet!
The only possibility for regime overthrow is for the regular military is undertake a coup. They alone have the firepower to subjugate the IGRC and the Basij. I’m not holding my breath.
Thanks again for your in-depth analysis
That is my conclusion too.
Or maybe an Azeri-initiated uprising with Israel / US support.
Both unlikely
I don't know if the regime will collapse, but if they continue on their current trajectory the country will collapse.
https://www.intellinews.com/iran-s-birth-rate-falls-below-1mn-as-population-crisis-deepens-366755/
Yeah their fertility is not good... But not very different from many other countries
The fertility isn't just bad. It is falling hard and fast. Not that their aren't other countries in a similar situation, but as the article I linked describes, their collapsing economy is creating a freefall. Iran is in many ways a cultured westernized country and they won't have children if they can't afford it.
And of course, Israel has a fertility rate more than double theirs.
To emphasize this:
In the 80s the number of births in Iran were 20x that of Israel. This year they will be about 5x. If Iran is such a severe disadvantage with a working population of 35+ at 20x that of Israel how will they look when their population is 5x that of Israel.
If they continue to neglect the needs of their populace and focus on their military and building up their nuclear program the next 40 years may see a repeat of the same cycle. In 40 years from now the number of births in Israel may be almost equal to that of Iran, and the median age will be decades lower.
Self-promotion without insights gets deleted.
Ad hominem comments that don't add insight get you banned