The chart with 2,000 years of economic history looks much more compelling when the x-axis shows the 2,000 years on the same scale. It could even show 1 or 2 thousand years more.
The core message of this charts is not the "century of humiliation," but that India and China ruled the world economy for thousands of years. No one else ever came close. And the current situation, which we see as the natural order of things, is not as natural as we in the West think.
A fact that 99% of people here in the "developed world" are ignorant of.
What I meant was that people in the West think that the current situation - we = rich, India and China = poor - is a given. For us, that is what "normal" looks like and we can’t imagine that things could be any other way or change.
But once you understand that this hasn’t been normal for most of human history, that it is just the result of some very unfortunate actions from our side, you also understand how quickly things can change (back).
And it is also a good example of how little we in the West know about what happened in history as long as it didn’t happen between San Francisco and Jerusalem.
That's also why I like your Substack a lot because you always try to fill those holes.
Just 40 years ago, it was still common in rural area in Southern France to tend for silkworms. Teens could get some spare money from it; I know a guy who bought his first moped with silk money.
Hard paste Meissen porcelain was maintained as a state secret. Production moved from Messien/Dresden to Albrechtsburg Castle. Where it was proprietary for
One more of your brilliant articles. Thank you. Do you think there might be a parallel to be drawn between the opium smuggling to China and the opioid crisis in the USA today and the possible role of China in this trade?
I've also thought about this, and perhaps it is historical justice that the West once forced opium addiction on China at gunpoint (two wars) and now China supplies the precursors for the various opioids ravaging Western countries. Of course there are other contributing reasons for the Opioid epidemic. See David Brooks on how America's Elites Rigged America ( a thoughtful Conservative for a change).
I remember reading about this in school. We used to have a chapter in a history book, called the Age of Industrialization, which detailed on trade of opium and silk by China. This article provided more insights on the history. A very interesting read. Keep up the good work, Tomas.
Excellent article. Your last paragraph asks one of the questions that came up for me: What did China do with all the silver it imported? I look forward to the next article. Another question, related but out of scope: if the modern Chinese are so opposed to drug usage because of their history with opium and the century of humiliation, what motivates the US's strange fixation with the war on drugs? Drug use in the US has never been that big of a negative drag on US society, has it?
My understanding is that there was also a problem of opium in the west but much weaker. But not in Southeast Asia (for the same reason as in China), so many veterans brought opium addictions they picked up in Vietnam. People got scared of that, and Nixon took advantage of that to declare a war on drugs, which was also a good way to demonize a core constituency of its Democratic opponents.
The transition period between China hoarding silver and not exporting advanced tech and machinery, and others showing up with gunships - I wonder if it coincided with the Qing empire having to expand its domestic welfare programs to quelling pre-rebellions etc. Much of the silver, I suspect, also went to giving dividend subsidies to the nobles, etc. All in all, the immense isolation of the court for such a vast empire was probably key to it not investing strategically into naval technology, etc.
Yes. They were instrumental in stirring up the British government and population to support the wars against China by using misinformation about "abuses" against British merchants in China. Listen to the Podcast "Empires" specifically "NarcoVictorians".
Ever thought about compiling your posts into a book? Your geography stuff especially. Even if it were a minimal effort copy-paste job from blog to binding, I'd probably happily pre-order.
The problem is that the maps are a core part, and it’s not easy to have them on print, unless the book is expensive, at which point it sells much less…
This whole piece reads like someone just opened a time portal and started connecting dots no one usually bothers to look at. And it makes a strong point, too: China’s trade surpluses are baked into a much deeper pattern that’s been playing out for millennia.
The West has been shipping its wealth eastward since before it was even "the West" in any modern sense.
The West craves what China makes (be it silk, porcelain, tea) and never has enough to offer in return. That craving turns into imbalance, then frustration, and then... force.
But here’s the twist that makes this different: China remembers all of it. The humiliation, the theft of know-how, the addiction epidemics, it’s all alive in their political memory. So now when the West starts panicking about deficits or tries to "decouple," China sees a familiar pattern, and this time, it’s determined not to be on the losing end.
That’s why I think this won’t end the way it did before. The West can’t just copy Chinese tech, slap tariffs, or hope for internal collapse like it once did. China’s too entrenched now, too calculating, and frankly, too ready.
So yeah, the trade war isn’t just about who makes more semiconductors or where your iPhone gets built. It’s part of a long chess game that’s been going on since Rome was buying silk with silver (and running out of both). The board hasn’t changed. Just the players.
I do think every time is different, but it’s important to understand what is still true and what isn’t.
The fact that the Chinese are great at manufacturing and consume less than they produce seems like something that has always been true and won’t change.
But all the tech they’ve developed in the last few decades comes from the West.
If Japan is a good proxy, Chinese innovation will only go so far. They’re better at marginal optimization than disruptive innovation. There’s something there.
Also it seems like manufacturing can be moved elsewhere, the way tea, silk, and porcelain were. It doesn’t need to be by theft.
Since China was 25-30% of the world economy wouldn’t it be logical around 25% (80%*30%) would end up there? In fact, isn’t that low given its continued trade surplus?
The chart with 2,000 years of economic history looks much more compelling when the x-axis shows the 2,000 years on the same scale. It could even show 1 or 2 thousand years more.
The core message of this charts is not the "century of humiliation," but that India and China ruled the world economy for thousands of years. No one else ever came close. And the current situation, which we see as the natural order of things, is not as natural as we in the West think.
A fact that 99% of people here in the "developed world" are ignorant of.
I agree with everything except for the natural order of things. I’d rather say historical precedent
What I meant was that people in the West think that the current situation - we = rich, India and China = poor - is a given. For us, that is what "normal" looks like and we can’t imagine that things could be any other way or change.
But once you understand that this hasn’t been normal for most of human history, that it is just the result of some very unfortunate actions from our side, you also understand how quickly things can change (back).
And it is also a good example of how little we in the West know about what happened in history as long as it didn’t happen between San Francisco and Jerusalem.
That's also why I like your Substack a lot because you always try to fill those holes.
I agree with that.
And thank you!
Just 40 years ago, it was still common in rural area in Southern France to tend for silkworms. Teens could get some spare money from it; I know a guy who bought his first moped with silk money.
I didn’t know!
I didn't earn any money doing it, but I've spend some time plucking mulberry trees to feed my friend's silkworms myself :)
Hard paste Meissen porcelain was maintained as a state secret. Production moved from Messien/Dresden to Albrechtsburg Castle. Where it was proprietary for
https://www.albrechtsburg-meissen.de/en/meissen-albrechtsburg-castle/history
I have a large Lithograph signed in 1883 by Bernhard Mannfeld that shows off this lovely castle.
I didn’t know. But that makes a lot of sense!
One more of your brilliant articles. Thank you. Do you think there might be a parallel to be drawn between the opium smuggling to China and the opioid crisis in the USA today and the possible role of China in this trade?
I've also thought about this, and perhaps it is historical justice that the West once forced opium addiction on China at gunpoint (two wars) and now China supplies the precursors for the various opioids ravaging Western countries. Of course there are other contributing reasons for the Opioid epidemic. See David Brooks on how America's Elites Rigged America ( a thoughtful Conservative for a change).
It’s very possible that the Chinese could have incentivized it out of realpolitik strategy and historical memory.
I don’t know if they actually did though
Agree. May be just historical irony, or ironical justice.
A brilliant read. Fascinating and puts so much in context.
I remember reading about this in school. We used to have a chapter in a history book, called the Age of Industrialization, which detailed on trade of opium and silk by China. This article provided more insights on the history. A very interesting read. Keep up the good work, Tomas.
Well done on the reference to China in the book by Pliny the Elder! Not easy to find in this gigantic text ;)
Hahahhahaha
I laughed out loud
Excellent article. Your last paragraph asks one of the questions that came up for me: What did China do with all the silver it imported? I look forward to the next article. Another question, related but out of scope: if the modern Chinese are so opposed to drug usage because of their history with opium and the century of humiliation, what motivates the US's strange fixation with the war on drugs? Drug use in the US has never been that big of a negative drag on US society, has it?
My understanding is that there was also a problem of opium in the west but much weaker. But not in Southeast Asia (for the same reason as in China), so many veterans brought opium addictions they picked up in Vietnam. People got scared of that, and Nixon took advantage of that to declare a war on drugs, which was also a good way to demonize a core constituency of its Democratic opponents.
Really great article.
The transition period between China hoarding silver and not exporting advanced tech and machinery, and others showing up with gunships - I wonder if it coincided with the Qing empire having to expand its domestic welfare programs to quelling pre-rebellions etc. Much of the silver, I suspect, also went to giving dividend subsidies to the nobles, etc. All in all, the immense isolation of the court for such a vast empire was probably key to it not investing strategically into naval technology, etc.
Yes the Ming famously abandoned the navy.
A lovely article that I highly resonated with.
I wrote an article about the blue and white Portuguese tiles that you might find interesting.
https://visioninvesting.substack.com/p/a-world-in-blue-and-white-the-cross
Interesting, Jardine Matheson, which is one of the largest conglomerates in Hong Kong, used to smuggle opium from British-controlled India into China.
Super interesting!
Yes. They were instrumental in stirring up the British government and population to support the wars against China by using misinformation about "abuses" against British merchants in China. Listen to the Podcast "Empires" specifically "NarcoVictorians".
Ever thought about compiling your posts into a book? Your geography stuff especially. Even if it were a minimal effort copy-paste job from blog to binding, I'd probably happily pre-order.
Thanks Ted! I indeed think about it a lot.
The problem is that the maps are a core part, and it’s not easy to have them on print, unless the book is expensive, at which point it sells much less…
This whole piece reads like someone just opened a time portal and started connecting dots no one usually bothers to look at. And it makes a strong point, too: China’s trade surpluses are baked into a much deeper pattern that’s been playing out for millennia.
The West has been shipping its wealth eastward since before it was even "the West" in any modern sense.
The West craves what China makes (be it silk, porcelain, tea) and never has enough to offer in return. That craving turns into imbalance, then frustration, and then... force.
But here’s the twist that makes this different: China remembers all of it. The humiliation, the theft of know-how, the addiction epidemics, it’s all alive in their political memory. So now when the West starts panicking about deficits or tries to "decouple," China sees a familiar pattern, and this time, it’s determined not to be on the losing end.
That’s why I think this won’t end the way it did before. The West can’t just copy Chinese tech, slap tariffs, or hope for internal collapse like it once did. China’s too entrenched now, too calculating, and frankly, too ready.
So yeah, the trade war isn’t just about who makes more semiconductors or where your iPhone gets built. It’s part of a long chess game that’s been going on since Rome was buying silk with silver (and running out of both). The board hasn’t changed. Just the players.
Thank you
I do think every time is different, but it’s important to understand what is still true and what isn’t.
The fact that the Chinese are great at manufacturing and consume less than they produce seems like something that has always been true and won’t change.
But all the tech they’ve developed in the last few decades comes from the West.
If Japan is a good proxy, Chinese innovation will only go so far. They’re better at marginal optimization than disruptive innovation. There’s something there.
Also it seems like manufacturing can be moved elsewhere, the way tea, silk, and porcelain were. It doesn’t need to be by theft.
All interesting questions to ponder!
Since China was 25-30% of the world economy wouldn’t it be logical around 25% (80%*30%) would end up there? In fact, isn’t that low given its continued trade surplus?
Yes, although:
- This is not the only source of silver China sucked. It sucked much more silver from close-by sources. Eg Japan
- You’d imagine it wouldn’t be so overrepresented in silver mines in one continent by states from another continent!