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Oct 26, 2023Liked by Tomas Pueyo

Thanks so much for these articles-- lots of great information. However, you state near the beginning that "To this day, neither Hamas nor Fatah—in power in Gaza and the West Bank respectively—publicly accept Israel’s right to exist..." But you must know this is not true of Fatah? In the 1990s, the PLO, led by Fatah, renounced armed struggle and supported UNSC 242, which called for a two-state solution back in 1967, and the PLO engaged in and signed the Oslo Accords (also in the 1990s) which recognize Israel. This fact is very important, and distinguishes Fatah from Hamas. Fatah has been a negotiating partner with Israel (perhaps to its detriment politically). To say they don't accept Israel's right to exist is just not true. I am surprised you wrote that. Please modify that sentence.

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Oct 26, 2023·edited Oct 26, 2023Author

Yes! Fatah *used to* recognize Israel

But I’ve been looking for such a statement now and I can’t find it!

It’s been 30 years since these talks, and you can never see Fatah say Israel has a right to exist.

If you find such statements please share them with me!

This is the kind of pernicious, disingenuous stuff that creates a toxic atmosphere.

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Oct 26, 2023Liked by Tomas Pueyo

Fair enough. But until it is renounced, that is the policy. Fatah cooperates with Israel security forces in policing militants: their ongoing relationship with the IDF is in effect recognition. Of course, their general policy of cooperation loses them support among younger Palestinians especially. They don't get help from Netanyahu (& other right-wingers) who undercut Fatah by their continuing to build settlements (you delineated their strategy very well). The PM and his allies have also said that they must support Hamas in order to prevent a two-state solution -- in other words, they refuse to recognize Palestine's right to exist as a state and work to prevent its coming about. I can't imagine any politician on earth who has such limited choices as Mahmoud Abbas.

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I agree

I will go deep on this topic in the next arricle

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Oct 26, 2023Liked by Tomas Pueyo

Who silences the Palestinian peace makers and why? How do they do this and with what tools? Zionist have a similiar problem. And the violence goes on and on and on.

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This article from 2018 says the revoke recognition frequently?

https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2018/11/4/why-did-the-plo-suspend-its-recognition-of-israel

Not an expert, is the PLO and Fatah the same thing?

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You can consider PLA, PLO, PA, and Fatah the same conceptually. If you want to go into the weeds, the PA is the authority that is the main administrative authority of Palestine (now really just the WB), the PLO was the organization that sought independence from Israel (the PA was created by the Oslo Accords to split it from the PLO), the PLA is the armed branch of the PLO, and Fatah is the main party in the PA. AFAIK

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I am not an Israeli but have been visiting Israel for about 20 years +

Your article was a very fair and well researched piece, the notes too; the negative aspects of Israel in the “occupied” territories are clear.

However, the right of Israel to exist as an independent Jewish state after x thousand years of persecution of the Jews, drives everything the Israelis do and this culminates in their decision now to “eliminate” their main adversary, Hamas.

Israel considers Hamas (and of course Iran) as an existentialist threat to their very existence and I have much sympathy for that view.

Peace requires two parties, at least, and both sides are divided.

I look forward very much to your next piece.

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Thank you!

I agree. This article is about the West Bank.

Hamas is a terrorist organization, and eliminating it is Israel's right of self-defense.

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Oct 29, 2023Liked by Tomas Pueyo

Israel is a politically vibrant state - contentious disagreement and heated debate along several fault lines. That’s awesome! But nothing unifies like an existential threat.

That being said, the areas in the south, the kibbutz hardest hit by 10/7, are also some of the most reliably left-leaning voting areas in the country. In other words, most critical of the nationalist agenda and most sympathetic to the Gazan situation. These were the people they chose to massacre.

It would be like BLM or Antifa attacking the heart of San Francisco or Seattle...so the political calculus from Hamas seems a bit more “gas the Jews!” than 3-dimensional chess in hindsight.

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Oct 27, 2023Liked by Tomas Pueyo

It's not a civilizational conflict. It's mostly a tribal conflict between 2 people with origin in the same place (thousands of years ago) with similar religions. Even if you look at modern US politics it's kind of a tribal warfare. Lot of Psychological research shows that if teams of boys are assigned different colors (red vs blue team) they build up empathy only for their team but start treating the other team as sub-human & commit lot of evil. Humans are hard-wired with a tribal mindset although have been expanding circle of compassion to 8 billion people.

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Civilizational conflicts are tribal

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Oct 27, 2023Liked by Tomas Pueyo

I have a quick question: how does topography factor into the placement of Israeli settlements in the "piercing the West Bank" strategy? Are those settlements / corridors of outposts located along the places of higher elevation? Or do the contours of the hills etc. have little to do with the corridor locations?

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The ones close to the border are at the feet of the hills and tend to be in river valleys

Those further inland are in higher elevations / hillier country, and the Israeli zones tend to occupy entire valleys, so secluded from Palestinian areas by ridges.

I might make a gif

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Oct 27, 2023Liked by Tomas Pueyo

"There are two kinds of problems, real and imaginary, out of which imaginary problems are more real."

I find above statement extremely relevant in state relations especially when viewed through security lens. Israelis can't let off boot on Palestinians out of fears of attack which is a valid reason but this continuous military presence is making a militarised society in both Palestine and Israel giving rise to "terrorists/ freedom fighters" in Palestine and ultra nationalist policies including heightened military presence in Israel.

I think there would remain a status quo with Israel continuously nibbling at the territories of West bank and no peace for foreseeable future.

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Indeed. This cycle of violence and security is at the core of the dynamic, and time is on the Israeli side.

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Oct 27, 2023Liked by Tomas Pueyo

Phenomenal article. It’s was a long read and I had to digest it in chunks but I appreciate the thorough, honest and unbiased information. Of course, a complex issue such as this should require the time investment when trying to see both perspectives. I don’t know how I found you on twitter, Tomas but I’m glad I did. Very grateful for your wisdom. ♥️

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Thank you Nora!

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Oct 26, 2023Liked by Tomas Pueyo

These posts have been fantastic. I really appreciate your perspective!

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Oct 26, 2023Liked by Tomas Pueyo

Excellent discussion of the complexities of the West Bank. Tomas, your balanced perspective is appreciated as a contrast to the heated rhetoric and misinformation that is so prevalent. The history of the conflict between Israel and Palestine is complex and full of shades of grey, not amenable to simple slogans and polemics. Those who don't take the time to understand this history, as laid out so clearly by Tomas and other authors, should avoid loud declarations, one way or the other. It is difficult to convey to those who aren't Jewish the mindset that we have from millenia of persecution, diaspora, and genocide. We live with the sense that we could be attacked and displaced at any time and should never let our guard down completely. The Holocaust taught us that our entire "nation" (in Old Testament sense) was in danger of being eliminated. It is this mindset that led to the desire for a homeland after WWII. Israel was, and continues to be, an "essential" country for Jews, the place where all Jews could go in utter need and defend ourselves. This is the mindset that underlies the response of Israelis to the violent assault by Hamas on Oct 7. These terrorists (not freedom fighters) violated Israelis' deepest sense of security and ignited fears of elimination. That was Hamas' intention - they knew that their war crimes would trigger a violent response by the IDF which would in turn lead to more war crimes which they have cynically exploited for propaganda. I don't say all this to justify the IDF's actions against civilians in Gaza, but there is no way forward for either people without understanding the deep seated imperative among Jews that we will never again be victims of genocide. Pair this with Hamas' position that Israel must be wiped from the face of the earth and we end up with the current tragedy. Watching the pro-Palestinian protests leads me to ask where were these protesters when Assad killed at least 306,000 civilians in Syria, Russia commityed war crimes against civilians in Ukraine, and China continues its ethnic cleansing of Uyghurs? Why were those assaults on civilians less worthy of protest than those in Gaza? Why does the conflict between Israel and Palestine command so much attention from the world when other tragedies are ignored?

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I have a couple of drafts tackling that last question. I think it's understandable, but illuminating

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Hi EB,

One key reason I can see why people would protest on this conflict, rather than the others you mentioned: protestors would hope to influence their own government to impact world events. Western states already condemn Russia, China, and Assad, but politicians were giving support to Israel for any responses to the horrors of October 7th even including removal of electricity and water supplies.

Arguably, the protests have had some effect, as more conditions are now given by some politicians for support for the right of self defence from Israel.

I do think there are other states that Western governments give their support to, such as Saudi Arabia, who are committing atrocities. Official positions to these actors could be influenced by civil movements, and public opinion is already pretty low.

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I concur with Robbie.

I would also dispute that Israel is essential for the safety of Jews; on the contrary, it's probably the least safe place in the world, and it's only been safe enough because of US support. Living in the USA would be much safer.

But it's not just about that; it's about religious affiliation to the area, and of course the reality that it's now home for many Jews.

BTW, I'm Jewish, technically (non practicing); my Grandma lost family in the Holocaust.

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Tomas,

If you follow (as I do Prof John Mearsheimer...negative on Israel for years) please listen to a 53 minute interview he has just given with the Centre for Independent Studies in Brisbane....just on YouTube now.

He also covers the Ukranian situation where he has been 100% correct for nearly 20 years...

Richard

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Hi!

Unfortunately I have a back list of about 20274920572 YouTube conversations lasting between 1h and 5 days to listen to

If you can summarize for me the key insights, I’d be grateful!

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Oct 29, 2023Liked by Tomas Pueyo

Tomas - it would be interesting for you perhaps to also speak to Epyptians, Jordanians, Lebanese (Muslims and Christians), as well as Palestinians and Israelis. My husband is from the region and noted that it is a very nuanced issue when people from neighbouring states talk about it vs far flung Muslims and Jews commenting from abroad. Best always and thank you again for your articles

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Would he be willing to chat? If so please answer to one of my emails so I get his contact

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Oct 28, 2023Liked by Tomas Pueyo

Well written and so informative thank you

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Oct 28, 2023Liked by Tomas Pueyo

regarding blocking settler violence

Israel certainty isn't doing enough. but some cases can illustrate that it does do quite some.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duma_arson_attack

3 Palestinians murdered in their home . Israel security services use torture to extract confessions from there defendant, and eventually he got imprisoned for life.

now interesting is how he was caught. according to Roy Sharon, the secret services were constantly monitoring hundreds of those extremists. when investigating the murder, they weren't through the whole list and *did know* where everyone has been/doing. the few who couldn't be accounted for, were understood via elimination to have been the murderers

Roy Sharon's book VeInakma ואינקמה (https://he.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/%D7%95%D7%90%D7%A0%D7%A7%D7%9E%D7%94) tells the story of those extremists. and various terror cases where he "knows" who did what. but - like in mafia reporting - knowing isn't "can be convicted"

great writeup

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This is useful, thanks

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Oct 27, 2023Liked by Tomas Pueyo

Tomas, thank you for your effort on trying to provide an unbiased, balanced view, which is what I’m really seeking for in this whole conflict.

One question though: noticing how you describe those biased media channels, it makes me wonder how do you think of yourself. Do you consider yourself biased against Palestine and in favor of Israel?

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I am certainly biased. It’s impossible not to. I do try to fight the biases as hard as I can. I will actually share this in an upcoming article. I think it’s important.

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Oct 26, 2023Liked by Tomas Pueyo

Great series Tomas. I've learned a great deal. You're strength is in analysis using geography to understand. I think, though, that you very much underappreciate the theological implications of Islam vis-a-vis Israel and the Jews.

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You are very right. I need to get more on that. I am!

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Oct 26, 2023Liked by Tomas Pueyo

When people say “Israel is an apartheid state”, they are usually confused."

Then, was Nelson Mandela, awarded the Nobel Prize for Peace  confused?

Or is it not that simple? Here's an interview that should illicit some empathy, curiosity, and  further reflection on such a difficult and unfortunate situation. I agree that the reasons are not the same, yet similarities in conditions exist. Power over an underprivileged people, power over legal structures, access to the ballet/ suffrage, to have a say in one's government policies in the land of one's birth is a human right? And forced movement out of or off that land is a Human Rights violation.  Human Rights are universal. How can they not be? This 1990 Nelson Mandela  interview is extraordinary.

It seems more to reason that the similarities to apartheid are greater than most will acknowledge. The defense of the Jewish people is morally warranted and justifiable. But not at the expense of violence, oppression, & forced removal of other human beings who were not guilty of atrocities. Should every state be based on an ethnocentric mono theocracy? No one has a monopoly on human suffering. Civic life should revolve around the protection of human rights of every citizen. These are the guiding principles of all of western societies. These should be the guiding organizing principles today as they were in the times of the Greeks and Persians. Where is there room for peacemakers in the process?

https://abcnews.go.com/Nightline/video/nightlines-historic-nelson-mandela-interview-21132568

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Thank you! There are certainly some similarities. Some differences:

The PA has full civil authority in Areas A & B. Palestinians would have access to the ballot if the PA agreed

Which they don’t, maybe because if they did, it would be the last time they accessed the ballot, as happened in Gaza with the election of Hamas

Similarly, the PA has full authority over A&B so it could easily do all the things you say

(A lot of the lack of prosperity is linked to isolation measures from Israel, which tend to increase any time there’s violence.)

There is substantial terrorist presence inside of the WB

A sizable amount of Palestinians deny Israel’s rights to exist

These are just some differences

As I said, many parallels too, which Mandela highlights.

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Oct 26, 2023Liked by Tomas Pueyo

A short clip here from the 1990 interview, that last sentence was revealing of Nelson's integrity and his commitment to peace, consistency of democratic values, and calling for mutual respect among different groups of people and nations.

"No, Mr. Koppel, I don't agree with you. I am saying that it will be a grave mistake for us to consider our attitude toward Yasser Arafat on the basis of the interests of the Jewish community. We sympathize with the struggles of the Jewish people, and their persecution, right down the years. In fact, we have been very much influenced by the lack of racialism amongst the Jewish communities.

In our own country, in the political trials that have taken place, when few lawyers were prepared to defend us, it has been the Jewish lawyers who have come forward to defend us. I myself was articled _ I'm a lawyer by profession, and I was trained to become a lawyer _ by a Jewish firm at a time when few firms in our country were prepared to take blacks. And as I have said, we have many Jews _ members of the Jewish community _ in our struggle, and they have occupied very top positions.

But that does not mean to say that the enemies of Israel are our enemies. We refuse to take that position. You can call it impolitical or a moral question, but for anybody who changes his principles depending on whom he is dealing (with), that is not a man who can lead a nation."

-Nelson Mandela, 1990

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Wise

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I think if Nelson Mandela came back today and looked at the shape South Africa was in, he would regret everything he did.

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Depends on how much he values freedom vs prosperity vs fairness vs safety

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South Africa is regressing into a primeval state. They cannot keep the lights on or the water flowing. That is the unfortunate reality.

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Maybe freedom is more important to them than the other 3

Although I thought humans generally put safety higher

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Another link to the complete Nelson Mandela/Ted Kopple town hall/ interview/town hall. Filled with so many good questions and answers, some simple, others not.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q6eE9BIUfBg

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Too long. Can you summarize?

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Oct 26, 2023Liked by Tomas Pueyo

I could only try to summarize a mind of someone so important to humanity. In his words,

"As far as Yasser Arafat is concerned, I explained to Mr. Siegman that we identify with the PLO because, just like ourselves, they are fighting for the right of self-determination. I went further, however, to say that the support for Yasser Arafat in his struggle does not mean that the ANC has ever doubted the right of Israel to exist as a state, legally. We have stood quite openly and firmly for the right of that state to exist within secure borders. But, of course, as I said to Mr. Siegman in Geneva, and others, that we carefully define what we mean by secure borders. We do not mean that Israel has the right to retain the territories they conquered from the Arab world, like the Gaza Strip, the Golan Heights and the West Bank. We don't agree with that. Those territories should be returned to the Arab people." -Nelson Mandela 1990 Town Hall

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