What did we discuss in 2022? What will we discover in 2023
Thomas, the number one issue I wish you would tackle is bureaucracy. I feel administrative managerial bloat is the #1 problem of our times preventing innovation, productivity growth, risk taking, and evolution in governance. In your career you must be constantly navigating the tension between building stable institutions and dynamism/creative destruction and yet you never mention this as a problem in the West writ large. I think this is the root cause of Baumol's cost disease, and it is also a class problem driving inequality. "If you want a problem solved, make it a project. If you want it managed, make it a career." We could free up vast amounts of GDP to spend solving problems if there was a countervailing force capable of reforming stagnant or self-serving institutions.
Wow, what an impressive summary of the very valuable articles you have written. The survey was really helpful for remembering the various 2022 articles. You covered a lot of territory (pun intended)! And, because you write on such a variety of topics, it's always helpful when you tie them together in a big picture way, as you did with this article. Really looking forward to the rest of your articles for 2023.
The piece on aloneness vs loneliness was very interesting. I would like to see you cover is more info on mental health. It seems there is an overall decline in mental health occurring. Increases in depression, narcissism, autism, etc. More mass shootings. Suicides. Etc. Is that really the case? And, are children and young people being seriously affected? If so, what is the cause and how can it best be turned around? Poor mental health causes individuals, families and society to suffer in many ways. If there is a trend towards an increase it's important to get to the root of why so solutions can be found. And, as you said in a comment on this page, "Psychology is at the core of everything about us and our future." So we need healthy psychological states.
Thanks so much for all you do, Tomas. I love reading your articles!!
What great value your subscription provides. I have newspaper subscriptions, which cover topical issues, but it has no intention - not like the eclectic but directed focus of UT, and it gets caught in the tide of events.
UT provides an unapologetic perspective, not just the dispassionate facts like a scientific paper, but it also provides evidence and eschews the emotional rhetoric of the mainstream press. Well done Tomas and team, I am very satisfied with this well curated research provision service.
So here for all of it. Can’t wait!
Would love to see your take on India. And Geography has a big role to play in it's past and present. Qs to ask:
(i) Why does India have large land mass with lots of rivers & cultivation but did not become a global super power (say like US or Europe)
(ii) Europeans claim that they united India as a "country". Why that's untrue and the way nation states were getting set up India would have always ended up as a country
(iii) Why are there so many diverse cultures & languages in India?
(iv) Why did Hinduism not spread as far and wide as say Christianity , Islam or Buddhism
I have been waiting for this from you...
Seeing all the posts laid out like this I think you should take 2023 off and let me (and likely others!) catch up on all the amazing content we probably haven’t fully finished reading yet :P Jokes aside, really incredible work and looking forward to reading more.
I'm happy to have subscribed, as UT looks quite interesting.
In the attempt to contribute, here's one angle that may fit somewhere in your future forecasting formulas.
The primary driver of the human condition, and thus human history, would seem to be that which all humans are made of psychologically, thought. All philosophies (using this term broadly) and philosophers are made of thought, so whatever the properties of thought may be, they would seem to have a profound influence on the human situation. Here's a quick example to illustrate...
Briefly for now, we can propose that thought operates by dividing a single unified reality in to conceptual parts. The noun is an easy example of this.
If it's true that thought, that which we are made of, is inherently divisive...
That would explain why (to my knowledge) every ideology ever invented inevitably subdivides in to competing internal factions. The universality of this phenomena suggests the cause must be something which all ideologies have in common, which can only be that which all ideologies and ideologists are made of, thought.
Technology will continue to change of course, perhaps ever more rapidly. But what's driving our desire for more and more and more of everything, the human psychological condition, would seem to be pretty stable over thousands of years. And thus this factor is perhaps a good lens through which to attempt predictions.
I'm sure there are many other ways to go about this, so I'll keep reading to learn how you're proceeding on such matters. Have a great 2023!
Election Integrity. Democracy has always failed. History will continued to repeat until that failure is prevented this time. The corruption of democracy by ballot harvesting is an epic ending crisis. When the ballots of those that don't care outnumber those that do, it is over. Like right NOW?
Thanks for the great articles. I would be like to wander how you get the information and intergral together, and interested in human work with AI.
One proposal is that the development of tools required language to explain their use
Another line of thought relates identity as kin based vs function based and taboos and religion to development and technology progress