1. Housing has some differentiation, but not infinite. You said it yourself: Manhattan is a bundle of houses that people would consider, not each Manhattan home is unique and unchangeable. And although New Jersey is not Manhattan, the fact that …
1. Housing has some differentiation, but not infinite. You said it yourself: Manhattan is a bundle of houses that people would consider, not each Manhattan home is unique and unchangeable. And although New Jersey is not Manhattan, the fact that you mention it in the same sentence shows that it is exchangeable with Manhattan in some circumstances. What remote work does is making these much more exchangeable than they used to.
You're also taking as an example New York, which is probably the single piece of real estate with most demand in the world, which will as a result continue gathering that demand. It will be completely different for, say, Tucson vs Phoenix, or a rural area in Vermont vs Maine.
2. This is addressed in the premium article very specifically. Hospitality will indeed be untied, retail, office, logistics unlikely
3. I am talking mostly about the cost of land here. I address the cost of construction in the premium article. The short is land is much more scarce than construction skills and materials. Prices can skyrocket with an excess demand of land vs supply, but the market can correct when that happens in construction costs.
Indeed. That, and many more, addressed in the premium article.
https://unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com/p/is-any-real-estate-investment-safe
Quickly:
1. Housing has some differentiation, but not infinite. You said it yourself: Manhattan is a bundle of houses that people would consider, not each Manhattan home is unique and unchangeable. And although New Jersey is not Manhattan, the fact that you mention it in the same sentence shows that it is exchangeable with Manhattan in some circumstances. What remote work does is making these much more exchangeable than they used to.
You're also taking as an example New York, which is probably the single piece of real estate with most demand in the world, which will as a result continue gathering that demand. It will be completely different for, say, Tucson vs Phoenix, or a rural area in Vermont vs Maine.
2. This is addressed in the premium article very specifically. Hospitality will indeed be untied, retail, office, logistics unlikely
3. I am talking mostly about the cost of land here. I address the cost of construction in the premium article. The short is land is much more scarce than construction skills and materials. Prices can skyrocket with an excess demand of land vs supply, but the market can correct when that happens in construction costs.
4. I address permitting in this article