Kids are much less likely to die from COVID than older people, and vaccines have side-effects. So is it worth vaccinating them? Here are the costs and benefits.
The UK JCVI statement you discuss was about vaccination for ages 12-15. The JCVI recognized a benefit, so it is unlikely that the additional considerations you give would change the calculations much, particularly as it had not been demonstrated that the vaccine reduces the risk of PMIS, if infected. However, there is not necessarily a big difference between the JCVI's and your views. The JCVI recognized that there may be other considerations that strengthen the case for vaccination, and explicitly suggested the Chief Medical Officers consider those in making their final recommendation. The decision of the CMOs at that time was to make one dose of vaccine available, recognize that there should be no stigmatization of parents who choose not to vaccinate due to the fine balance of arguments, and state that the issue of a second dose should be revisited in a few months. Those decisions were before Omicron emerged. When Omicron emerged, the UK decided to give second doses for ages 12-15.
Thank you for your detailed analysis. I've not seen anything done as thoroughly anywhere. Although I agree with your findings and methods, I don't come to the same conclusion and this is why --- based on your final summary graph, about 650 unvaccinated kids per 100k are likely to admitted to an ICU, or have some side effect... vs 60/70 per 100k with vaccine. This sounds like a no brainer but for me even 650 per 100k is not a compelling case when you weigh in the fact that this is still new, and who knows if other worse side effects will surface over time. So for me, it's still a NO for vaccinating my kids. But thank you for all the detailed analysis.
mRNA vaccines are not "experimental" in any meaningful sense. mRNA produces an antigen which produces an immune response. Neither process is new and both are well understood. mRNA produces all our proteins. The immune reaction to the antigen is no different than that from any other. The mRNA in the vaccine is rapidly destroyed just like all other mRNAs - in fact the biggest technical hurdle with the vaccines has been developing a capsule to protect them for long enough so that they can produce enough antigen. The antigen itself is only part of the spike. It is not infectious. All this is basic immunology. The long term risk is insignificant and we have way more data on vaccine harm vs benefit that a knowledgeable person needs to justify the shot.
Hello Tomas, Thank you so much for your informative article. I live in the UK and have 2 children boy age 10 and girl age 9. They both currently have covid 19 (my husband and I are currently triple vaccinated and negative) so I want to know if you think giving our kids a first Pizer vaccine in time would benefit them since they have caught omnicron and also if there is any data yet on reproductive issues from the vaccine? Kind regards and many thanks
Thanks, Tomas. Super clear and well explained, like all your articles. I have one question, what about babies <1 year old? Currently pregnant, I got my three vaccine shots (2 pfeizer and the third, moderna) so my baby should have some kind of immunity when he’s born, but to what extent will he be protected? Is there any data/report on protection on babies? Or plans if vaccines will be tested and available for them in the near future? Thanks a lot
Great article. Thanks for posting. Quick question about the final bar chart: for apple to apple comparison, shouldn't you consider weighing the odds of getting covid? In other word, if you get the vaccine, you have 50/100K chances of getting side effects. If you do not get the vaccine, you have 600/100K chances of getting side effects conditioning on getting covid. Let's say that 20% of kids will get covid (I don't know what the right number is). Then, shouldn't you divide the covid bar by 5? Would the two bars be comparable then? Maybe I am missing something...
Thank you Tomas for another elegant summary. As I read it I kept thinking of writing a sister article called “Should You Face Your Fear of Vaccinating Your Kids?” Evolution has left us poorly equipped to parse nuance and uncertainty without feeling helpless and vulnerable. In a way the cognitive dissonance of vaccine deniers is akin to an overactive immune response to foreign information that threatens their worldview. I’d love to live in a binary black and white safe/unsafe world but this messy one is home. When things get tough we really do seem like emotional beings who think more than thinking beings who feel.
Hi Tomas - Love your work, but I was surprised by the really small CFS percentages as they were markedly lower than the ~2-3% (across all ages) you reported in your Long Covid article. I went to the source of the data in the graph you presented here (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC6331450/) and it is actually NOT from covid patients. It was published in 2018 before covid. Please update or clarify when you get a chance.
When the risk of serious harm AND major benefit is low, then minor harm and benefit become more important. For many parents the inconvenience of arranging the jab and pain from the needle outweigh the benefits. The indigenous population I work with solved this by vaccinating at schools. Everybody gets it, which is convenient and children see that it is no big deal. Of course the tribe really cares about its elders, unlike many Westerners.
Thanks for the analysis. What would be interesting to known to better weight the risk-benefit balance of COVID-19/vaccines in kids would be to compare the data you report with those from other respiratory infections of kids/vaccines. The flu for example, what is the incidence (or better what was in the pre-covid era) of complications/hospitalizations/death in kids between 5-12? In my country (Italy) the flu-vaccine in the pre-covid era was indicated only for the elderly (over 65 years of age) and my kid's pediatrician had never considered to suggest the flu-vaccine. If hospitalization and death incidence of the flu are somewhat similar to those of COVID-19, it would be a nice piece of extra information to add on the balance. There's still the protect the others reason that might be more relevant in this pandemic from a national health perspective, but when the (healthy) kids are your own the protect the others inevitably comes second (especially when you still have a relevant percentage of unvaccinated elderly that should protect themself).
The UK JCVI statement you discuss was about vaccination for ages 12-15. The JCVI recognized a benefit, so it is unlikely that the additional considerations you give would change the calculations much, particularly as it had not been demonstrated that the vaccine reduces the risk of PMIS, if infected. However, there is not necessarily a big difference between the JCVI's and your views. The JCVI recognized that there may be other considerations that strengthen the case for vaccination, and explicitly suggested the Chief Medical Officers consider those in making their final recommendation. The decision of the CMOs at that time was to make one dose of vaccine available, recognize that there should be no stigmatization of parents who choose not to vaccinate due to the fine balance of arguments, and state that the issue of a second dose should be revisited in a few months. Those decisions were before Omicron emerged. When Omicron emerged, the UK decided to give second doses for ages 12-15.
Excellent post. Can you draft an essay on the efficacy of booster shots?
Thank you very much for your excellent work.
Thank you for your detailed analysis. I've not seen anything done as thoroughly anywhere. Although I agree with your findings and methods, I don't come to the same conclusion and this is why --- based on your final summary graph, about 650 unvaccinated kids per 100k are likely to admitted to an ICU, or have some side effect... vs 60/70 per 100k with vaccine. This sounds like a no brainer but for me even 650 per 100k is not a compelling case when you weigh in the fact that this is still new, and who knows if other worse side effects will surface over time. So for me, it's still a NO for vaccinating my kids. But thank you for all the detailed analysis.
mRNA vaccines are not "experimental" in any meaningful sense. mRNA produces an antigen which produces an immune response. Neither process is new and both are well understood. mRNA produces all our proteins. The immune reaction to the antigen is no different than that from any other. The mRNA in the vaccine is rapidly destroyed just like all other mRNAs - in fact the biggest technical hurdle with the vaccines has been developing a capsule to protect them for long enough so that they can produce enough antigen. The antigen itself is only part of the spike. It is not infectious. All this is basic immunology. The long term risk is insignificant and we have way more data on vaccine harm vs benefit that a knowledgeable person needs to justify the shot.
Hello Tomas, Thank you so much for your informative article. I live in the UK and have 2 children boy age 10 and girl age 9. They both currently have covid 19 (my husband and I are currently triple vaccinated and negative) so I want to know if you think giving our kids a first Pizer vaccine in time would benefit them since they have caught omnicron and also if there is any data yet on reproductive issues from the vaccine? Kind regards and many thanks
Fantastic article! It is thorough, factual, prescriptive.
TY for your contributions to public health!
Thanks, Tomas. Super clear and well explained, like all your articles. I have one question, what about babies <1 year old? Currently pregnant, I got my three vaccine shots (2 pfeizer and the third, moderna) so my baby should have some kind of immunity when he’s born, but to what extent will he be protected? Is there any data/report on protection on babies? Or plans if vaccines will be tested and available for them in the near future? Thanks a lot
Great article. Thanks for posting. Quick question about the final bar chart: for apple to apple comparison, shouldn't you consider weighing the odds of getting covid? In other word, if you get the vaccine, you have 50/100K chances of getting side effects. If you do not get the vaccine, you have 600/100K chances of getting side effects conditioning on getting covid. Let's say that 20% of kids will get covid (I don't know what the right number is). Then, shouldn't you divide the covid bar by 5? Would the two bars be comparable then? Maybe I am missing something...
I can't find your premium article on anti-vaxx arguments analysis. I am a subscriber
is there a Spanish language version of this article coming?
Thank you Tomas for another elegant summary. As I read it I kept thinking of writing a sister article called “Should You Face Your Fear of Vaccinating Your Kids?” Evolution has left us poorly equipped to parse nuance and uncertainty without feeling helpless and vulnerable. In a way the cognitive dissonance of vaccine deniers is akin to an overactive immune response to foreign information that threatens their worldview. I’d love to live in a binary black and white safe/unsafe world but this messy one is home. When things get tough we really do seem like emotional beings who think more than thinking beings who feel.
Hi Tomas - Love your work, but I was surprised by the really small CFS percentages as they were markedly lower than the ~2-3% (across all ages) you reported in your Long Covid article. I went to the source of the data in the graph you presented here (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/labs/pmc/articles/PMC6331450/) and it is actually NOT from covid patients. It was published in 2018 before covid. Please update or clarify when you get a chance.
When the risk of serious harm AND major benefit is low, then minor harm and benefit become more important. For many parents the inconvenience of arranging the jab and pain from the needle outweigh the benefits. The indigenous population I work with solved this by vaccinating at schools. Everybody gets it, which is convenient and children see that it is no big deal. Of course the tribe really cares about its elders, unlike many Westerners.
Thanks for the analysis. What would be interesting to known to better weight the risk-benefit balance of COVID-19/vaccines in kids would be to compare the data you report with those from other respiratory infections of kids/vaccines. The flu for example, what is the incidence (or better what was in the pre-covid era) of complications/hospitalizations/death in kids between 5-12? In my country (Italy) the flu-vaccine in the pre-covid era was indicated only for the elderly (over 65 years of age) and my kid's pediatrician had never considered to suggest the flu-vaccine. If hospitalization and death incidence of the flu are somewhat similar to those of COVID-19, it would be a nice piece of extra information to add on the balance. There's still the protect the others reason that might be more relevant in this pandemic from a national health perspective, but when the (healthy) kids are your own the protect the others inevitably comes second (especially when you still have a relevant percentage of unvaccinated elderly that should protect themself).
Thanks for the article. Would you change your mind looking at this latest research? (Nearly no protection for kids in the group age 5-11years after 1 month): https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/17/health/pfizer-vaccine-children/index.html